Generative whole-brain dynamics models from healthy subjects predict functional alterations in stroke at the level of individual patients.

Computational whole-brain models describe the resting activity of each brain region based on a local model, inter-regional functional interactions, and a structural connectome that specifies the strength of inter-regional connections. Strokes damage the healthy structural connectome that forms the backbone of these models and produce large alterations in inter-regional functional interactions. These interactions are typically measured by correlating the time series of the activity between two brain regions in a process, called resting functional connectivity. We show that adding information about the structural disconnections produced by a patient's lesion to a whole-brain model previously trained on structural and functional data from a large cohort of healthy subjects enables the prediction of the resting functional connectivity of the patient and fits the model directly to the patient's data (Pearson correlation = 0.37; mean square error = 0.005). Furthermore, the model dynamics reproduce functional connectivity-based measures that are typically abnormal in stroke patients and measures that specifically isolate these abnormalities. Therefore, although whole-brain models typically involve a large number of free parameters, the results show that, even after fixing those parameters, the model reproduces results from a population very different than that on which the model was trained. In addition to validating the model, these results show that the model mechanistically captures the relationships between the anatomical structure and the functional activity of the human brain.