Global burden and trends in pre- and post-menopausal gynecological cancer from 1990 to 2019, with projections to 2040: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND

The global burden and trends in gynecological cancer (GC) by menopausal status worldwide remain unclear.

METHODS

Data on the number of incident cases and deaths, as well as age-standardized rates (ASR) and risk factors for GC in pre- and post-menopausal women were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. The estimated annual percent change was calculated to quantify the temporal trend of GC burden by menopausal status between 1990 and 2019. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the trends in age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for pre- and post-menopausal GC during 2020-2040.

RESULTS

In 2019, an estimated 400 146 pre-menopausal and 879 476 post-menopausal GC cases were newly diagnosed worldwide, with ~111 420 and 442 821 GC-related deaths occurring in each menopausal group, respectively. The majority of both pre- and post-menopausal GC cases in low-to-middle-SDI regions was due to cervical cancer. In high- and high-middle-SDI regions, pre-menopausal GC was primarily attributed to cervical cancer, while post-menopausal GC was mainly attributed to uterine cancer. Additionally, the contribution of uterine cancer to GC was higher among post-menopausal women than pre-menopausal women, across all SDI levels and geographical regions. ASIRs either remained stable or increased from 1990 to 2019 worldwide for both pre- and post-menopausal GC [an average change of 0.03% (95% CI -0.02 to 0.08) and 0.09% (0.05-0.13) per year, respectively]. However, the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) declined by an annual average of 0.86% (95% CI -0.92 to -0.8) and 0.63% (95% CI -0.66 to -0.6) globally during the same period. The risk-attributable proportion of post-menopausal GC deaths was higher than that of pre-menopausal GC and increased with increasing SDI. The projections indicate an increasing trend in the burden of pre-menopausal GC from 2020 to 2040, while the burden of post-menopausal GC is expected to decline.

CONCLUSIONS

GC continues to be a significant public health concern worldwide, with notable regional and demographic disparities in the burden based on menopausal status. Policymakers and healthcare providers must be proactively aware of these evolving trends and tailor age-appropriate and region-specific screening strategies, as well as allocate resources accordingly.