Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Deltares, Delft, The Netherlands.
Sci Rep. 2019 Mar 4;9(1):3391. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-40157-w.
The western North-Atlantic coast experienced major coastal floods in recent years. Coastal floods are primarily composed of tides and storm surges due to tropical (TCs) and extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs). We present a reanalysis from 1988 to 2015 of extreme sea levels that explicitly include TCs for the western North-Atlantic coastline. Validation shows a good agreement between modeled and observed sea levels and demonstrates that the framework can capture large-scale variability in extreme sea levels. We apply the 28-year reanalysis to analyze spatiotemporal patterns. Along the US Atlantic coasts the contribution of tides can be significant, with the average contribution of tides during the 10 largest events up to 55% in some locations, whereas along the Mexican Southern Gulf coast, the average contribution of tides over the largest 10 events is generally below 25%. At the US Atlantic coast, ETCs are responsible for 8.5 out of the 10 largest extreme events, whereas at the Gulf Coast and Caribbean TCs dominate. During the TC season more TC-driven events exceed a 10-year return period. During winter, there is a peak in ETC-driven events. Future research directions include coupling the framework with synthetic tropical cyclone tracks and extension to the global scale.
近年来，北大西洋西部沿海地区经历了重大沿海洪水。沿海洪水主要由热带气旋（TCs）和温带气旋（ETCs）引起的潮汐和风暴潮组成。我们呈现了 1988 年至 2015 年北大西洋西部海岸线极端海平面的再分析结果，其中明确包括了 TCs。验证表明，模型模拟的海平面与观测结果吻合较好，表明该框架能够捕捉到极端海平面的大规模变化。我们应用 28 年的再分析来分析时空模式。在美国大西洋沿岸，潮汐的贡献可能很大，在一些地方，10 次最大事件中潮汐的平均贡献高达 55%，而在墨西哥南部海湾沿岸，10 次最大事件中潮汐的平均贡献通常低于 25%。在美国大西洋沿岸，ETC 负责了 10 次最大极端事件中的 8.5 次，而在海湾沿岸和加勒比地区，TC 占主导地位。在 TC 季节，更多的 TC 驱动事件超过了 10 年重现期。在冬季，ETC 驱动的事件达到峰值。未来的研究方向包括将该框架与合成热带气旋轨迹耦合，并扩展到全球范围。
