Liu Boyang, Li Li, Zhang Zhulin, Ran Haoyu, Xing Mingwei
College of Wildlife and Protected Area, Northeast Forestry University, 26 Hexing Road, Harbin 150040, China.
Insects. 2025 Apr 3;16(4):382. doi: 10.3390/insects16040382.
In the context of global warming, there is an increasing risk of the emergence and re-emergence of vector-borne diseases (VBDs). As one of the most important vectors, can carry and transmit numerous human and animal infectious pathogens. To better understand the current distribution and possible future dynamics of in China, an ecological niche modeling approach (MaxEnt) was adopted to model its current and future habitat suitability. The most comprehensive dataset (1100 occurrence records) in China to date was established for model training. Multiple global climate models (GCMs) and climate change scenarios were introduced into the model to counter the uncertainties of future climate change. Based on the model prediction, currently exhibits high habitat suitability in southern, central, and coastal regions of China. It is projected that its suitable niche will experience continuous expansion, and the core distribution is anticipated to shift northward in the future 21st century (by the 2050s, 2070s and 2090s). Several environmental variables that reflect temperature, precipitation, and land-use conditions were considered to have a significant influence on the distribution of , among which annual mean temperature and urban land contribute the most to the model. Our study conducted a quantitative analysis of the shift and expansion of the future habitats of , providing references for vector monitoring and the prevention and control of VBDs.
在全球变暖的背景下，媒介传播疾病（VBDs）出现和再次出现的风险日益增加。作为最重要的媒介之一，[媒介名称未给出]能够携带和传播众多人类和动物传染性病原体。为了更好地了解[媒介名称未给出]在中国的当前分布以及未来可能的动态变化，采用了生态位建模方法（MaxEnt）来模拟其当前和未来的栖息地适宜性。建立了中国迄今为止最全面的数据集（1100条出现记录）用于模型训练。将多个全球气候模型（GCMs）和气候变化情景引入模型，以应对未来气候变化的不确定性。基于模型预测，[媒介名称未给出]目前在中国南部、中部和沿海地区表现出较高的栖息地适宜性。预计其适宜生态位将持续扩大，核心分布在21世纪未来（到2050年代、2070年代和2090年代）预计会向北转移。几个反映温度、降水和土地利用条件的环境变量被认为对[媒介名称未给出]的分布有显著影响，其中年平均温度和城市用地对模型的贡献最大。我们的研究对[媒介名称未给出]未来栖息地的转移和扩张进行了定量分析，为媒介监测以及VBDs的预防和控制提供了参考。
