Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Division, National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Astronautas Avenue, 1758, São José dos Campos, SP, 12227-010, Brazil.
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Albanovägen 28, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden.
Ambio. 2024 Dec;53(12):1722-1736. doi: 10.1007/s13280-024-02058-9. Epub 2024 Aug 8.
The global demand for agricultural commodities has driven extensive land conversion to agriculture in Brazil, especially in the MATOPIBA region. This area encompasses the Rio Grande Basin, a major tributary of the São Francisco Basin that is known for expanding intensive irrigated agriculture and hydropower generation. However, recent data reveal declining precipitation and aquifer recharge, potentially exacerbating ongoing water and land conflicts. This study investigates the long-term sustainability of agricultural expansion amid the worsening water scarcity using a system dynamics model. Findings suggest that rising costs and decreasing profits due to irrigation water shortages may hinder the expansion of irrigated land. By 2040, the irrigation demand may remain partly unmet, while downstream flow and baseflow could decrease. Additionally, agricultural expansion will significantly raise energy demand, posing a developmental challenge. We suggest that ensuring the sustainability of the Rio Grande Basin depends on improved water management and exploring alternative energy sources to address existing constraints.
全球对农产品的需求促使巴西大规模将土地转为农业用途，尤其是在马托皮巴地区。该地区涵盖了格兰德河盆地，这是圣弗朗西斯科盆地的主要支流，以扩张集约化灌溉农业和水力发电而闻名。然而，最近的数据显示，该地区的降水和含水层补给正在减少，这可能会加剧现有的水和土地冲突。本研究使用系统动力学模型，探讨了在水资源日益短缺的情况下，农业扩张的长期可持续性。研究结果表明，由于灌溉水资源短缺导致的成本上升和利润减少，可能会阻碍灌溉土地的扩张。到 2040 年，灌溉需求可能仍无法得到满足，而下游流量和基流可能会减少。此外，农业扩张将显著增加能源需求，这对发展构成挑战。我们建议，确保格兰德河盆地的可持续性取决于改进水资源管理和探索替代能源，以解决现有制约因素。
