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实现可持续发展目标的政策连贯性:运用综合模拟模型评估有效政策。

Policy coherence to achieve the SDGs: using integrated simulation models to assess effective policies.

作者信息

Collste David, Pedercini Matteo, Cornell Sarah E

机构信息

1Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.

Millennium Institute, Washington, DC USA.

出版信息

Sustain Sci. 2017;12(6):921-931. doi: 10.1007/s11625-017-0457-x. Epub 2017 Jul 26.

Abstract

Coherently addressing the 17 Sustainable Development Goals requires planning tools that guide policy makers. Given the integrative nature of the SDGs, we believe that integrative modelling techniques are especially useful for this purpose. In this paper, we present and demonstrate the use of the new System Dynamics based iSDG family of models. We use a national model for Tanzania to analyse impacts of substantial investments in photovoltaic capacity. Our focus is on the impacts on three SDGs: SDG 3 on healthy lives and well-being, SDG 4 on education, and SDG 7 on energy. In our simulations, the investments in photovoltaics positively affect life expectancy, years of schooling and access to electricity. More importantly, the progress on these dimensions synergizes and leads to broader system-wide impacts. While this one national example illustrates the anticipated impact of an intervention in one specific area on several SDGs, the iSDG model can be used to support similar analyses for policies related to all the 17 SDGs, both individually and concurrently. We believe that integrated models such as the iSDG model can bring interlinks to the forefront and facilitate a shift to a discussion on development grounded in systems thinking.

摘要

连贯地实现17项可持续发展目标需要能为政策制定者提供指导的规划工具。鉴于可持续发展目标的综合性,我们认为综合建模技术尤其适用于此目的。在本文中,我们展示并演示了基于系统动力学的新型iSDG模型系列的使用。我们使用坦桑尼亚的国家模型来分析对光伏产能的大量投资所产生的影响。我们关注的是对三项可持续发展目标的影响:关于健康生活和福祉的可持续发展目标3、关于教育的可持续发展目标4以及关于能源的可持续发展目标7。在我们的模拟中,对光伏的投资对预期寿命、受教育年限和电力供应产生了积极影响。更重要的是,这些方面的进展相互促进,并导致更广泛的全系统影响。虽然这个单一的国家案例说明了在一个特定领域的干预措施对若干可持续发展目标的预期影响,但iSDG模型可用于支持对与所有17项可持续发展目标相关的政策进行类似分析,无论是单独分析还是同时分析。我们相信,诸如iSDG模型这样的综合模型能够将相互联系置于突出位置,并促进向基于系统思维的发展讨论的转变。

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