Construction of effective reproduction number of infectious disease individuals based on spatiotemporal discriminant search model: take hand-foot-mouth disease as an example.

OBJECTIVE

In order to facilitate the tracing of infectious diseases in a small area and to effectively carry out disease control and epidemiological investigations, this research proposes a novel spatiotemporal model to estimate effective reproduction number(Re)for infectious diseases, based on the fundamental concept of contact tracing.

METHODS

This study utilizes the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) among children in Bishan District, Chongqing, China from 2015 to 2019. The study incorporates the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD and aims to construct a Spatiotemporal Correlation Discrimination of HFMD. Utilizing ARC ENGINE and C# programming for the creation of a spatio-temporal database dedicated to HFMD to facilitate data collection and analysis. The scientific validity of the proposed method was verified by comparing the effective reproduction number obtained by the traditional SEIR model.

RESULTS

We have ascertained the optimal search radius for the spatiotemporal search model to be 1.5 km. Upon analyzing the resulting Re values, which range from 1.14 to 4.75, we observe a skewed distribution pattern from 2015 to 2019. The median and quartile Re value recorded is 2.42 (1.98, 2.72). Except for 2018, the similarity coefficient r of the years 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2019 were all close to 1, and p <0.05 in the comparison of the two models, indicating that the Re values obtained by using the search model and the traditional SEIR model are correlated and closely related. The results exhibited similarity between the Re curves of both models and the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD. Finally, we illustrated the regional distribution of Re values obtained by the search model at various time intervals on Geographic Information System (GIS) maps which highlighted variations in the incidence of diseases across different communities, neighborhoods, and even smaller areas.

CONCLUSION

The model comprehensively considers both temporal variation and spatial heterogeneity in disease transmission and accounts for each individual's distinct time of onset and spatial location. This proposed method differs significantly from existing mathematical models used for estimating Re in that it is founded on reasonable scientific assumptions and computer algorithms programming that take into account real-world spatiotemporal factors. It is particularly well-suited for estimating the Re of infectious diseases in relatively stable mobile populations within small geographical areas.