College of Chemistry, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA.
Am J Infect Control. 2022 Jun;50(6):638-644. doi: 10.1016/j.ajic.2021.11.031. Epub 2021 Dec 8.
Most of the mathematical modeling studies on COVID-19 transmission are based on continuous deterministic models that do not consider the characteristics of social networks.
The effect of contact tracing on mitigating COVID-19, and other infectious diseases in general, is studied in a small-world network. This network has its advantages over the commonly used continuous deterministic mathematical models in that the characteristics of social networks can be properly incorporated.
Simulation results show that for the original strain of SARS-CoV-2, contact tracing can play an important role in reducing and delaying the peak daily new cases. New cases can be reduced by using symptom onset to isolate tracked individuals, but the benefit can be greatly enhanced by testing asymptomatic and presymptomatic individuals on the sixth to eighth day of infection. For the delta variant, or other variants of much higher infectivity, contact tracing alone cannot significantly lower the number of daily new cases but is able to delay the peaks greatly, thus affording more time to explore and implement pharmaceutical interventions.
Contact tracing can be a very powerful tool to combat COVID-19 caused by the original strain or any variant of SARS-CoV-2. In order to make contact tracing effective, every effort is needed to expand the pool of contact tracing and provide all necessary support to the self-quarantined.
大多数关于 COVID-19 传播的数学建模研究都是基于不考虑社交网络特征的连续确定性模型。
在小世界网络中研究了接触者追踪对减轻 COVID-19 及一般传染病的影响。与常用的连续确定性数学模型相比，该网络具有适当纳入社交网络特征的优势。
模拟结果表明，对于 SARS-CoV-2 的原始毒株，接触者追踪可以在减少和延迟每日新增病例高峰方面发挥重要作用。通过在出现症状时隔离追踪到的个体，可以减少新发病例，但通过在感染后第 6 至第 8 天对无症状和症状前个体进行检测，可以大大增强这种效果。对于 delta 变体或传染性更高的其他变体，单独的接触者追踪不能显著降低每日新增病例数，但可以大大延迟峰值，从而为探索和实施药物干预措施提供更多时间。
接触者追踪可以成为对抗由 SARS-CoV-2 原始毒株或任何变体引起的 COVID-19 的非常有力的工具。为了使接触者追踪有效，需要尽一切努力扩大接触者追踪范围，并为自我隔离者提供所有必要的支持。
