Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Hebei Key Laboratory of Soil Ecology, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetic and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050022, Hebei, China.
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg A-2361, Austria.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2024 Aug 20;121(34):e2317725121. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2317725121. Epub 2024 Aug 12.
Using global data for around 180 countries and territories and 170 food/feed types primarily derived from FAOSTAT, we have systematically analyzed the changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity (GHG) (kg CO per kg protein production) over the past six decades. We found that, with large spatial heterogeneity, emission intensity decreased by nearly two-thirds from 1961 to 2019, predominantly in the earlier years due to agronomic improvement in productivity. However, in the most recent decade, emission intensity has become stagnant, and in a few countries even showed an increase, due to the rapid increase in livestock production and land use changes. The trade of final produced protein between countries has potentially reduced the global GHG, especially for countries that are net importers with high GHG, such as many in Africa and South Asia. Overall, a continuous decline of emission intensity in the future relies on countries with higher emission intensity to increase agricultural productivity and minimize land use changes. Countries with lower emission intensity should reduce livestock production and increase the free trade of agricultural products and improve the trade optimality.
利用来自 FAOSTAT 的全球约 180 个国家和地区以及 170 种主要食物/饲料类型的全球数据，我们系统地分析了过去六十年间温室气体（GHG）排放强度（GHG）（每生产 1 千克蛋白质的 CO2 排放量）的变化。我们发现，排放强度存在较大的空间异质性，从 1961 年到 2019 年下降了近三分之二，这主要是由于生产力的农业改良在前几年取得了进展。然而，在最近的十年中，排放强度已经停滞不前，在少数几个国家甚至出现了上升，这是由于畜牧业生产的快速增长和土地利用的变化。国家间最终生产的蛋白质的贸易可能减少了全球温室气体排放，特别是对于那些排放强度高的净进口国，如非洲和南亚的许多国家。总的来说，未来排放强度的持续下降依赖于排放强度较高的国家提高农业生产力并最小化土地利用变化。排放强度较低的国家应减少畜牧业生产，增加农产品的自由贸易，并提高贸易的最优性。
