State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
Institute of Land Surface System and Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
Sci Adv. 2024 Aug 16;10(33):eadp3964. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adp3964.
Large-scale deforestation alters water availability through its direct effect on runoff generation and indirect effect through forest-climate feedbacks. However, these direct and indirect effects and their spatial variations are difficult to separate and poorly understood. Here, we develop an attribution framework that combines the Budyko theory and deforestation experiments with climate models, showing that widespread runoff reductions caused by the indirect effect of forest-climate feedbacks can largely offset the direct effect of reduced forest cover on runoff increases. The indirect effect dominates the hydrological responses to deforestation over 63% of deforested areas worldwide. This indirect effect arises from deforestation-induced reductions in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, which decrease and increase runoff, respectively, leading to complex patterns of runoff responses. Our findings underscore the importance of forest-climate feedbacks for improved understanding and prediction of climate and hydrological changes caused by deforestation, with profound implications for sustainable management of forests and water resources.
大规模的森林砍伐通过直接影响径流量的产生和间接影响森林-气候反馈来改变水的可利用性。然而，这些直接和间接的影响及其空间变化很难分离，也了解甚少。在这里，我们开发了一种归因框架，将布地克理论和森林砍伐实验与气候模型相结合，结果表明，森林-气候反馈的间接效应导致的广泛的径流量减少，在很大程度上抵消了森林覆盖减少对径流量增加的直接效应。间接效应在全球 63%以上的森林砍伐地区主导着对森林砍伐的水文响应。这种间接效应源于森林砍伐导致的降水和潜在蒸散量减少，分别导致径流量减少和增加，从而导致径流量响应的复杂模式。我们的研究结果强调了森林-气候反馈对于改进对森林砍伐引起的气候和水文变化的理解和预测的重要性，对森林和水资源的可持续管理具有深远的意义。
