Modelling the Wage Bill and Budget Space for Health Workforce in Ghana: Implications for Sustainable Health Professions Education Policy.

Global discussions on health systems strengthening have lately tilted towards increasing investments in human resources for health to address health workforce challenges, especially shortages and employment. Countries have, as a result, increased investments in the health workforce by expanding the production and recruitment of the needed health workforce, with the resultant effects of increasing health workforce budget space and the unending clamour by health policy actors for further increases. Despite these calls, there has been no wage bill affordability and budget space analysis to rationalise the sustainable production of and demand for health workers, which is the thrust of Ghana's current health workforce policy and strategy. Using an adapted approach (the Asamani approach), the study modelled the supply of some essential health workers and their associated cost of employment, compared it with the modelled budget space for health workforce employment and then drew conclusions on the wage bill sustainability for policy consideration. Of the seven cadres considered in the study (doctors, professional nurses, midwives, enrolled nurses, community health nurses, pharmacists and biomedical scientists), who constitute about 97% of the wage bill, the study found the baseline stock to be 129 378 in 2022, which was estimated to increase to 199 715 by 2027 and 254 466 by 2032 with corresponding wage bills of US$869.4 million and US$ 1.1 billion, respectively, holding routine salary increases constant. The budget space for health was, meanwhile, projected to be US$899.3 million and US$1.1 billion in 2022 and 2032 respectively, out of a projected overall government fiscal space of US$7 billion per year. This study concludes that, given current levels and mix of production, Ghana was estimated to expend an average of 88% of its health budget space as wage bill cost. This was 54.4% over the global median and 95.6% over the African Region's median, making the current regime unsustainable.