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内分泌癌趋势 1990-2021:全球差异和健康不平等。

Endocrine cancer trends 1990-2021: global disparities and health inequalities.

机构信息

Department of Urology, The Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, China.

出版信息

Endocr Relat Cancer. 2024 Oct 4;31(11). doi: 10.1530/ERC-23-0363. Print 2024 Nov 1.

Abstract

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of global, continental, and national trends in the prevalence and mortality of prostate cancer (PC), breast cancer (BC), and thyroid cancer (TC). Utilizing 2021 Global Burden of Diseases (GBD2021) data, prevalence and death rates for 2021 were examined, with temporal trends from 1990 to 2021 analyzed via Joinpoint regression. Annual percentage change (APC) and average APC (AAPC) were calculated with 95% CI. Distributive inequalities were quantified using the slope index of inequality and concentration index. In 2021, PC, BC, and TC showed higher global age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR) in Europe and America compared to Africa and Asia, while higher age-standardized death rates (ASDR) for PC and BC were noted in Africa. Over the study period, significant global increases in ASPR were observed for PC (AAPC = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.67 to 0.89), BC (AAPC = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.24 to 0.37), and TC (AAPC = 1.42, 95% CI: 1.31 to 1.52). Conversely, ASDR significantly decreased for PC (AAPC = -0.83, 95% CI: -0.92 to -0.74), BC (AAPC = -0.48, 95% CI: -0.56 to -0.39), and TC (AAPC = -0.23, 95% CI: -0.29 to -0.17). Variations were observed across continents and time periods, affecting 204 countries and territories. Higher Social Development Index (SDI) levels were associated with a more pronounced burden of these cancers. The findings highlight significant global heterogeneity in prevalence, death rates, and temporal trends of endocrine cancers, with important implications for epidemiology and public health policies.

摘要

本研究对全球、各大洲和各国前列腺癌(PC)、乳腺癌(BC)和甲状腺癌(TC)的流行率和死亡率趋势进行了综合分析。利用 2021 年全球疾病负担(GBD2021)数据,检测了 2021 年的流行率和死亡率,并通过 Joinpoint 回归分析了 1990 年至 2021 年的时间趋势。用 95%置信区间计算了年变化百分比(APC)和平均年变化百分比(AAPC)。用斜率指数不平等和集中指数量化分布不平等。2021 年,欧洲和美洲的 PC、BC 和 TC 的全球年龄标准化流行率(ASPR)高于非洲和亚洲,而非洲的 PC 和 BC 的年龄标准化死亡率(ASDR)较高。在研究期间,PC 的全球 ASPR 显著增加(AAPC=0.78,95%CI:0.67 至 0.89),BC(AAPC=0.31,95%CI:0.24 至 0.37)和 TC(AAPC=1.42,95%CI:1.31 至 1.52)。相反,PC 的 ASDR 显著下降(AAPC=-0.83,95%CI:-0.92 至 -0.74),BC(AAPC=-0.48,95%CI:-0.56 至 -0.39)和 TC(AAPC=-0.23,95%CI:-0.29 至 -0.17)。不同大陆和时间段存在差异,影响了 204 个国家和地区。较高的社会发展指数(SDI)水平与这些癌症负担的加重有关。研究结果表明,内分泌癌的流行率、死亡率和时间趋势存在显著的全球异质性,对流行病学和公共卫生政策具有重要意义。

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