Predicting the Current and Future Distribution of (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) Based on the Maximum Entropy Model.

is a polyphagous and highly destructive agricultural pest, currently only distributed in Asia. In its place of origin, it poses a serious threat to important economic crops, for instance, maize ( L.) and cotton ( L.). Based on morphological and molecular data research, it has been found that (Motschulsky), (Motschulsky), and are actually the same species. This discovery means that the range of this pest will expand, and it also increases the risk of it spreading to non-native areas worldwide. It is crucial for global agricultural production to understand which countries and regions are susceptible to invasion by and to formulate corresponding prevention, control, and monitoring strategies. This study uses the maximum entropy model, combined with bioclimatic variables and elevation, to predict the potentially suitable areas and diffusion patterns of worldwide. The results indicate that in its suitable area, is mainly affected by three key climatic factors: Precipitation of Wettest Month (bio13), Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter (bio10), and Temperature Seasonality (bio4). Under the current status, the total suitable region of is 252,276.71 × 10 km. In addition to its native Asia, this pest has potentially suitable areas in Oceania, South America, North America, and Africa. In the future, with climate change, the suitable area of will expand to high-latitude areas and inland areas. This study found that by the 2070s, under the SSP5-8.5 climate scenario, the change in the potentially suitable area of this insect is the largest. By identifying the potentially suitable areas and key climatic factors of , we can provide theoretical and technical support to the government, enabling them to more effectively formulate strategies to deal with the spread, outbreak, and invasion of .