Liu Qingzhao, Zhao Jinyu, Hu Chunyan, Ma Jianguo, Deng Caiping, Ma Li, Qie Xingtao, Yuan Xiangyang, Yan Xizhong
College of Plant Protection, Shanxi Agricultural University, Jinzhong 030800, China.
College of Forestry, Shanxi Agricultural University, Jinzhong 030800, China.
Insects. 2024 Jul 29;15(8):575. doi: 10.3390/insects15080575.
is a polyphagous and highly destructive agricultural pest, currently only distributed in Asia. In its place of origin, it poses a serious threat to important economic crops, for instance, maize ( L.) and cotton ( L.). Based on morphological and molecular data research, it has been found that (Motschulsky), (Motschulsky), and are actually the same species. This discovery means that the range of this pest will expand, and it also increases the risk of it spreading to non-native areas worldwide. It is crucial for global agricultural production to understand which countries and regions are susceptible to invasion by and to formulate corresponding prevention, control, and monitoring strategies. This study uses the maximum entropy model, combined with bioclimatic variables and elevation, to predict the potentially suitable areas and diffusion patterns of worldwide. The results indicate that in its suitable area, is mainly affected by three key climatic factors: Precipitation of Wettest Month (bio13), Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter (bio10), and Temperature Seasonality (bio4). Under the current status, the total suitable region of is 252,276.71 × 10 km. In addition to its native Asia, this pest has potentially suitable areas in Oceania, South America, North America, and Africa. In the future, with climate change, the suitable area of will expand to high-latitude areas and inland areas. This study found that by the 2070s, under the SSP5-8.5 climate scenario, the change in the potentially suitable area of this insect is the largest. By identifying the potentially suitable areas and key climatic factors of , we can provide theoretical and technical support to the government, enabling them to more effectively formulate strategies to deal with the spread, outbreak, and invasion of .
是一种多食性且极具破坏性的农业害虫，目前仅分布于亚洲。在其原产地，它对重要经济作物构成严重威胁，例如玉米（L.）和棉花（L.）。基于形态学和分子数据研究，发现（莫氏）、（莫氏）和实际上是同一物种。这一发现意味着这种害虫的分布范围将会扩大，也增加了其传播到全球非原生地区的风险。了解哪些国家和地区易受入侵并制定相应的预防、控制和监测策略对全球农业生产至关重要。本研究使用最大熵模型，结合生物气候变量和海拔，预测全球的潜在适生区和扩散模式。结果表明，在其适生区内，主要受三个关键气候因素影响：最湿月降水量（bio13）、最暖季平均温度（bio10）和温度季节性（bio4）。在当前状况下，的总适生区为252,276.71×10平方千米。除了其原生地亚洲外，这种害虫在大洋洲、南美洲、北美洲和非洲也有潜在适生区。未来，随着气候变化，的适生区将向高纬度地区和内陆地区扩展。本研究发现，到2070年代，在SSP5-8.5气候情景下，这种昆虫潜在适生区的变化最大。通过确定的潜在适生区和关键气候因素，我们可以为政府提供理论和技术支持，使其能够更有效地制定应对传播、爆发和入侵的策略。
