Aldhaleei Wafa A, Wallace Michael B, Bhagavathula Akshaya Srikanth
Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN 55905, USA.
Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL 32224, USA.
Cancers (Basel). 2024 Aug 19;16(16):2883. doi: 10.3390/cancers16162883.
The incidence of early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) in individuals under 50 years old is rapidly increasing in the United States. This study aims to evaluate EO-CRC incidence rates using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021, providing insights into trends from 1990 to 2021. We employed an age-period-cohort (APC) model analysis to estimate the effects of age, time period, and birth cohort on EO-CRC incidence. Our findings indicate that the number of EO-CRC cases rose from 6256 (95% UI: 6059-6456) in 1990 to 9311 (95% UI: 8859-9744) in 2021, a 49% increase from 1990 to 2021. The age-standardized incidence rate per 100,000 population increased by 34% during this period. The net drift in females (0.22%, 95% CI: 0.20-0.24) was slightly higher than in males (0.21%, 95% CI: 0.19-0.23) ( = 0.45). The APC analysis revealed that being over 25 years old, the period from 2005-2021, and being born after 1983 negatively impacted EO-CRC incidence rates, with a sharp rise after 2000 and a reduction among females from 2017 to 2021. Our study highlights the need for targeted prevention strategies and further research to understand these trends.
在美国，50岁以下个体的早发性结直肠癌（EO-CRC）发病率正在迅速上升。本研究旨在利用《2021年全球疾病负担研究》（GBD 2021）的数据评估EO-CRC发病率，以深入了解1990年至2021年的趋势。我们采用年龄-时期-队列（APC）模型分析来估计年龄、时期和出生队列对EO-CRC发病率的影响。我们的研究结果表明，EO-CRC病例数从1990年的6256例（95%不确定区间：6059 - 6456）增至2021年的9311例（95%不确定区间：8859 - 9744），1990年至2021年增长了49%。在此期间，每10万人口的年龄标准化发病率上升了34%。女性的净变化率（0.22%，95%置信区间：0.20 - 0.24）略高于男性（0.21%，95%置信区间：0.19 - 0.23）（P = 0.45）。APC分析显示，25岁以上、2005 - 2021年期间以及1983年以后出生对EO-CRC发病率有负面影响，2000年后急剧上升，2017年至2021年女性发病率有所下降。我们的研究强调了制定针对性预防策略以及开展进一步研究以了解这些趋势的必要性。
