Wintemute Garen J, Li Yueju, Velasquez Bradley, Crawford Andrew, Reeping Paul M, Tomsich Elizabeth A
Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA.
Violence Prevention Research Program, University of California Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA.
Inj Epidemiol. 2024 Aug 29;11(1):40. doi: 10.1186/s40621-024-00521-5.
Surveys have found concerningly high levels of agreement that the United States will experience civil war soon. This study assesses variation in expectation of and perceived need for civil war with respondent sociopolitical characteristics, beliefs, firearm ownership, and willingness to engage in political violence.
Findings are from Wave 2 of a nationally representative annual longitudinal survey of members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel, conducted May 18-June 8, 2023. All respondents to 2022's Wave 1 who remained in KnowledgePanel were invited to participate. Outcomes are expressed as weighted proportions and adjusted prevalence differences, with p-values adjusted for the false discovery rate and reported as q-values.
The completion rate was 84.2%; there were 9385 respondents. After weighting, half the sample was female (50.7%, 95% CI 49.4%, 52.1%); the weighted mean (± standard deviation) age was 48.5 (25.9) years. Approximately 1 respondent in 20 (5.7%, 95% CI 5.1%, 6.4%) agreed strongly or very strongly that "in the next few years, there will be civil war in the United States." About 1 in 25 (3.8%, 95% CI 3.2%, 4.4%), and nearly 40% (38.4%, 95% CI 32.3%, 44.5%) of those who strongly or very strongly agreed that civil war was coming, also agreed strongly or very strongly that "the United States needs a civil war to set things right." Expectation of and perceived need for civil war were higher among subsets of respondents who in Wave 1 were more willing than others to commit political violence, including MAGA Republicans, persons in strong agreement with racist beliefs or statements of the potential need for violence to effect social change, persons who strongly approved of specified extreme right-wing political organizations and movements, firearm owners who purchased firearms in 2020 or later, and firearm owners who carried firearms in public all or nearly all the time.
In 2023, the expectation that civil war was likely and the belief that it was needed were uncommon but were higher among subsets of the population that had previously been associated with greater willingness to commit political violence. These findings can help guide prevention efforts.
调查发现，令人担忧的是，有很高比例的人认为美国很快将发生内战。本研究评估了受访者的社会政治特征、信仰、枪支拥有情况以及参与政治暴力的意愿与对内战的预期和感知需求之间的差异。
研究结果来自益普索知识面板成员的全国代表性年度纵向调查的第2波，于2023年5月18日至6月8日进行。邀请了所有参加2022年第1波调查且仍留在知识面板的受访者参与。结果以加权比例和调整后的患病率差异表示，p值经错误发现率调整后报告为q值。
完成率为84.2%；有9385名受访者。加权后，样本中有一半为女性（50.7%，95%置信区间49.4%，52.1%）；加权平均（±标准差）年龄为48.5（25.9）岁。约每20名受访者中有1人（5.7%，95%置信区间5.1%，6.4%）强烈或非常强烈地同意“在未来几年内，美国将发生内战”。在强烈或非常强烈同意内战即将到来的人中，约每25人中有1人（3.8%，95%置信区间3.2%，4.4%），近40%（38.4%，95%置信区间32.3%，44.5%）也强烈或非常强烈地同意“美国需要一场内战来拨乱反正”。在第1波调查中比其他人更愿意实施政治暴力的受访者子集中，包括MAGA共和党人、强烈认同种族主义信仰或认为可能需要暴力来实现社会变革的人、强烈赞成特定极右翼政治组织和运动的人、2020年或之后购买枪支的枪支拥有者以及几乎总是或一直公开携带枪支的枪支拥有者，对内战的预期和感知需求更高。
2023年，认为内战可能发生且有必要发生的预期并不常见，但在先前与更愿意实施政治暴力相关的人群子集中更高。这些发现有助于指导预防工作。
