Chegere Martin Julius, Jires Tunguhole, Fortunata Songora, Emmanuel Masalu, Twalib Ngoma, Mary Mayige, Jovin Lasway
University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
Sokoine University of Agriculture.
East Afr Health Res J. 2023;7(2):289-301. doi: 10.24248/eahrj.v7i2.743. Epub 2023 Nov 30.
Obesity and the associated non-communicable diseases contribute significantly to the disease burden in Tanzania. Obesity can be attributed to the consumption of Sugar Sweetened Beverages (SSB) due to their high sugar content that leads to high caloric intakes. This study estimates the effect of SSB tax on the prevalence of obesity.
A mathematical model that compares the reference population which is unchanged and a counterfactual population in which tax intervention has been introduced is developed. Changes in price and consumption of SSBs, and subsequent changes in energy intake are applied to estimate the body mass change by age groups. The change in body mass by age groups is merged with the reference population to estimate changes in body mass index and obesity.
Imposing a 20% SSB tax in Tanzania is estimated to reduce the average overall energy intake by 76.1 kJ per person per day. This change is associated with an overall reduction of prevalence of obesity by 6.6%; and by 12.9% and 5.2% in adult males and adult females, respectively. The number of obese people will potentially decrease by about 47,000 among adult males and about 85,000 among adult females from the current levels.
The SSB tax is a potential strategy to complement efforts to reduce obesity prevalence in Tanzania. The revenue generated from the tax should be channelled towards public health promotion programs.
肥胖及相关非传染性疾病在很大程度上加重了坦桑尼亚的疾病负担。肥胖可归因于含糖饮料（SSB）的消费，因为其高糖含量导致高热量摄入。本研究估计了SSB税对肥胖患病率的影响。
建立了一个数学模型，该模型比较了未改变的参考人群和引入税收干预的反事实人群。应用SSB价格和消费的变化以及随后能量摄入的变化来估计各年龄组的体重变化。将各年龄组的体重变化与参考人群合并，以估计体重指数和肥胖的变化。
据估计，在坦桑尼亚征收20%的SSB税可使人均每日平均总能量摄入减少76.1千焦。这一变化使肥胖患病率总体降低了6.6%；成年男性和成年女性的肥胖患病率分别降低了12.9%和5.2%。肥胖男性人数可能比目前水平减少约4.7万，肥胖女性人数可能减少约8.5万。
SSB税是补充坦桑尼亚降低肥胖患病率努力的一项潜在策略。该税产生的收入应投入到公共卫生促进项目中。
