Erasmus School of Health Policy & Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Erasmus Choice Modelling Centre, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Qual Life Res. 2024 Nov;33(11):3155-3160. doi: 10.1007/s11136-024-03770-5. Epub 2024 Sep 13.
To investigate the contribution of demographic trends in countries' age and gender composition to value set validity and obsolescence.
Time-trade off (TTO) valuation data from 3 EQ-5D-3L value sets of 20 years or older from the United Kingdom, Japan, and the United States were re-analyzed using Bayesian heteroskedastic Tobit models with sex and age group-specific scale parameters. Original value sets were obtained by weighting the original preference structures with the countries' original demographic composition at the time of the data collection. Updated value sets were created using the original preference structure weighted using the countries' most recent demographic composition. The differences between the original and updated value sets were monitored and compared based on 95% credible intervals.
The gender and age composition of the investigated countries changed in all 3 countries over time. The modelled health state preferences also depended on the respondents' gender and age. However, the overall impact of this demographic change on the investigated value sets was negligeable in all 3 countries and this finding was robust to accounting for the impact of ethnicity trends in the United States.
Value sets may become redundant and obsolete for various reasons, but demographic change was not identified as a contributing factor.
探讨各国年龄和性别构成的人口趋势对价值体系有效性和过时性的影响。
使用贝叶斯异方差 Tobit 模型，对来自英国、日本和美国的 3 个 EQ-5D-3L 价值体系中 20 岁或以上的时间权衡（TTO）估值数据进行了重新分析，这些模型具有性别和年龄组特定的尺度参数。原始价值集是通过将原始偏好结构与数据收集时各国的原始人口构成进行加权得到的。更新的价值集是使用原始偏好结构，根据各国最新的人口构成进行加权得到的。根据 95%的可信区间，监测和比较了原始价值集和更新价值集之间的差异。
在所调查的 3 个国家中，性别和年龄构成随时间发生了变化。模型化的健康状况偏好也取决于受访者的性别和年龄。然而，这种人口变化对所调查的价值体系的总体影响在所有 3 个国家都微不足道，这一发现对于考虑美国种族趋势的影响是稳健的。
价值体系可能因各种原因变得冗余和过时，但人口变化并没有被确定为一个促成因素。
