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基于水评价与规划(WEAP)方法的湿地作为鲁齐齐平原综合水资源管理蓄水池的有效性,以实现刚果民主共和国东部气候适应型未来。

Effectiveness of wetlands as reservoirs for integrated water resource management in the Ruzizi plain based on water evaluation and planning (WEAP) approach for a climate-resilient future in eastern D.R. Congo.

作者信息

Chuma Géant B, Mondo Jean M, Wellens Joost, Majaliwa Jackson M, Egeru Anthony, Bagula Espoir M, Lucungu Prince Baraka, Kahindo Charles, Mushagalusa Gustave N, Karume Katcho, Schmitz Serge

机构信息

Faculty of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, Université Evangélique en Afrique (UEA), Bukavu, South-Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo.

UR SPHERES, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2024 Sep 16;14(1):21577. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-72021-x.

Abstract

It is widely predicted that climate change's adverse effects will intensify in the future, and along with inadequate agricultural practices, settlement development, and other anthropic activities, could contribute to rapid wetland degradation and thus exert significant negative effects on local communities. This study sought to develop an approach based on the Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) in the Ruzizi Plain, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where adverse effects of the climate change are increasingly recurrent. Initially, we analyzed the trends of climate data for the last three decades (1990-2022). Subsequently, the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) approach was employed on two contrasting watersheds to estimate current and future water demands in the region and how local wetlands could serve as reservoirs to meeting water demands. Results indicate that the Ruzizi Plain is facing escalating water challenges owing to climate change, rapid population growth, and evolving land-use patterns. These factors are expected to affect water quality and quantity, and thus, increase pressure on wetland ecosystems. The analysis of past data shows recurrence of dry years (SPI ≤  - 1.5), reduced daily low-intensity rainfall (Pmm < 10 mm), and a significant increase in extreme rainfall events (Pmm ≥ 25 mm). The WEAP outcomes revealed significant variations in future water availability, demand, and potential stressors across watersheds. Cropland and livestock are the main water consumers in rural wetlands, while households, cropland (at a lesser extent), and other urban uses exert significant water demands on wetlands located in urban environments. Of three test scenarios, the one presenting wetlands as water reservoirs seemed promising than those considered optimal (based on policies regulating water use) and rational (stationary inputs but with a decrease in daily allocation). These findings highlight the impact of climate change in the Ruzizi plain, emphasizing the urgency of implementing adaptive measures. This study advocates for the necessity of the IWRM approach to enhance water resilience, fostering sustainable development and wetland preservation under changing climate.

摘要

人们普遍预测,气候变化的不利影响在未来将会加剧,再加上农业 practices 不当、定居点发展以及其他人类活动,可能会导致湿地迅速退化,从而对当地社区产生重大负面影响。本研究旨在刚果民主共和国(DRC)东部鲁齐齐平原开发一种基于综合水资源管理(IWRM)的方法,该地区气候变化的不利影响日益频繁。最初,我们分析了过去三十年(1990 - 2022年)的气候数据趋势。随后,在两个对比流域采用了水评价与规划(WEAP)方法,以估计该地区当前和未来的用水需求,以及当地湿地如何作为水库来满足用水需求。结果表明,由于气候变化、人口快速增长和土地利用模式的演变,鲁齐齐平原正面临着不断升级的水挑战。这些因素预计会影响水质和水量,从而增加对湿地生态系统的压力。对过去数据的分析显示干旱年份(标准化降水指数SPI≤ - 1.5)反复出现、日低强度降雨量减少(Pmm < 10毫米)以及极端降雨事件显著增加(Pmm≥25毫米)。WEAP的结果揭示了各流域未来水资源可利用量、需求和潜在压力源的显著差异。农田和牲畜是农村湿地的主要用水户,而家庭、农田(程度较轻)和其他城市用途对城市环境中的湿地提出了大量用水需求。在三个测试情景中,将湿地作为水库的情景似乎比那些被认为是最优的(基于调节用水的政策)和合理的(固定投入但日分配量减少)情景更有前景。这些发现突出了气候变化对鲁齐齐平原的影响,强调了实施适应性措施的紧迫性。本研究主张采用IWRM方法来增强水资源弹性的必要性,以促进在气候变化下的可持续发展和湿地保护。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/31b1/11405933/38d0395c08a3/41598_2024_72021_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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