Nivesh Shreya, Patil Jyoti Parasharam, Goyal Vikas Chandra, Saran Bhagwat, Singh Ajay Kumar, Raizada Anurag, Malik Anurag, Kuriqi Alban
ICAR-Mahatma Gandhi Integrated Farming Research Institute, East Champaran, 845429, Bihar, India.
National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee, 247667, Uttarakhand, India.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Feb;30(10):27289-27302. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-24050-0. Epub 2022 Nov 15.
Understanding the available resources and the needs of those who use them is necessary for the evaluation and allocation of water resources. The main sectors utilizing the basin water resources are agriculture, drinking water, animal husbandry, and industries, and the efficient and rational management of water resources to be distributed among those different sectors of activity is vital. This study attempts to develop an integrated water resource management system for the Dhasan River Basin (DRB) by employing a scenario analysis approach in conjunction with Water Evaluation and Planning Model (WEAP) to analyze trends in water use and anticipated demand between 2015 and 2050, simulating five possible scenarios (I, II, III, IV, and V) as for external driving factors. For the WEAP modeling framework, 2015 was chosen as a current (base) year for which all available information and input data were given to the model and the future demand situation was analyzed for the period 2016-2050 (forecasting period). From the findings, it was observed that for the forecasting period, total water demand, unmet demand, and streamflow were 185.29 Bm, 117.35 Bm, and 58.26 Bm, respectively, in the case of scenario I; 232.34 Bm, 162.17 Bm, and 59.87 Bm in case of scenario II; 139.40 Bm, 84.37 Bm, and 58.15 Bm in case of scenario III; 186.15 Bm, 118.76 Bm, and 56.98 Bm in case of scenario IV; and 181.89 Bm, 96.87 Bm, and 53.11 Bm in case of scenario V. Results of the study indicated that by 2050, increasing population growth, industrial development, and an increase in the agricultural area will rise the water demand dramatically, posing threats to the environment and humans. Therefore, implementing improved irrigation technologies, advancing agricultural practices on farms, and constructing water conservation and retaining structures could significantly reduce the unmet demands and shortfalls in DRB. Overall findings reveal that the pressure on the Dhasan water resources would increase in the future, and thus several suggestions have been provided to assist decision-makers in sustainable planning and management of water resources to meet future demands.
了解可用水资源以及用水者的需求对于水资源评估和分配至关重要。利用流域水资源的主要部门包括农业、饮用水、畜牧业和工业，在这些不同活动部门之间合理高效地分配水资源至关重要。本研究试图通过采用情景分析方法并结合水评估与规划模型（WEAP），为达桑河流域（DRB）开发一个综合水资源管理系统，以分析2015年至2050年期间的用水趋势和预期需求，针对外部驱动因素模拟五种可能情景（I、II、III、IV和V）。对于WEAP建模框架，选择2015年作为当前（基准）年，将所有可用信息和输入数据输入模型，并分析2016 - 2050年期间（预测期）的未来需求情况。从研究结果可以看出，在预测期内，情景I的总需水量、未满足需水量和径流量分别为1852.9亿立方米、1173.5亿立方米和582.6亿立方米；情景II分别为2323.4亿立方米、1621.7亿立方米和598.7亿立方米；情景III分别为1394.0亿立方米、843.7亿立方米和581.5亿立方米；情景IV分别为1861.5亿立方米、1187.6亿立方米和569.8亿立方米；情景V分别为1818.9亿立方米、968.7亿立方米和531.1亿立方米。研究结果表明，到2050年，人口增长、工业发展以及农业面积增加将大幅提高需水量，对环境和人类构成威胁。因此，实施改进的灌溉技术、推进农场农业实践以及建设节水和蓄水设施可显著减少DRB的未满足需求和短缺情况。总体研究结果表明，未来达桑河水资源压力将增加，因此提供了若干建议以协助决策者进行可持续水资源规划和管理，以满足未来需求。
