Sarofim Marcus C, Smith Christopher J, Malek Parker, McDuffie Erin E, Hartin Corinne A, Lay Claire R, McGrath Sarah
US Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC, 20460, USA.
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK.
Nat Commun. 2024 Sep 18;15(1):8185. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-52437-9.
Developing future climate projections begins with choosing future emissions scenarios. While scenarios are often based on storylines, here instead we produce a probabilistic multi-million-member ensemble of radiative forcing trajectories to assess the relevance of future forcing thresholds. We coupled a probabilistic database of future greenhouse gas emission scenarios with a probabilistically calibrated reduced complexity climate model. In 2100, we project median forcings of 5.1 watt per square meters (5th to 95th percentiles of 3.3 to 7.1), with roughly 0.5% probability of exceeding 8.5 watt per square meters, and a 1% probability of being lower than 2.6 watt per square meters. Although the probability of 8.5 watt per square meters scenarios is low, our results support their continued utility for calibrating damage functions, characterizing climate in the 22 century (the probability of exceeding 8.5 watt per square meters increases to about 7% by 2150), and assessing low-probability/high-impact futures.
制定未来气候预测始于选择未来排放情景。虽然情景通常基于故事情节，但在此我们生成了一个包含数百万成员的辐射强迫轨迹概率集合，以评估未来强迫阈值的相关性。我们将未来温室气体排放情景的概率数据库与经过概率校准的简化复杂性气候模型相结合。到2100年，我们预计的辐射强迫中值为每平方米5.1瓦（第5至95百分位数为3.3至7.1），超过每平方米8.5瓦的概率约为0.5%，低于每平方米2.6瓦的概率为1%。尽管每平方米8.5瓦情景的概率较低，但我们的结果支持它们在以下方面继续发挥作用：校准损害函数、描绘22世纪的气候（到2150年，超过每平方米8.5瓦的概率增加到约7%）以及评估低概率/高影响的未来情景。
