Vanckavičienė Aurika, Blaževičienė Aurelija, Zagurskienė Daiva, Stašaitis Kęstutis
Department of Nursing, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Kaunas, Lithuania.
Department of Emergency Medicine, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Kaunas, Lithuania.
BMC Nurs. 2024 Sep 18;23(1):663. doi: 10.1186/s12912-024-02326-9.
The increasing shortage of staff in healthcare facilities worldwide calls for a human resource planning strategy in order to ensure safe, timely and patient-centred care. The purpose of this paper is to provide an analysis and supply and demand projections of nurses, midwives, and radiographers within the labor market of the largest university hospital in the Baltic States by 2030.
The staff supply was calculated on the intake and outflow of persons in the labour market annually for various factors. Projections for the demand of nurses, midwives, and radiographers took into account the different needs of the population, categorized by gender and age, for the services offered within the institution.
The analysis highlights significant projected shortages in the supply of nurses and radiographers by 2030, while the supply of midwives is expected to meet the demand. The projected supply of nurses in 2030 will be lower than in 2021. Projected nurses demand in 2025 according medium scenario - shortage of 59 nurses, on prospective scenario - of 331 nurses. In 2030 according medium scenario - shortage of 173 nurses on prospective - of 772 nurses. The projected supply of radiographers in 2030 will be higher than in 2021. Projected radiographers demand in prospective scenario which is the most likely in 2025 - shortage of 26 and in 2030 - shortage of 52 radiographers. The projected supply of midwives in 2030 will be higher than in 2021. The variables influencing the increase in the demand for midwives did not exceed the projected supply in the institution, indicating a balanced supply-demand scenario for midwives.
Due to the rising demand for nurse and radiographer services from the aging population, the predicted supply of nurses and radiographers will be insufficient. To ensure the projected demand for nurses in the medium and prospective scenarios, the nurses recruited each year should increase up to 38% in the medium scenario and 69% in the prospective scenario from 2022. In the prospective demand scenario, the recruitment of radiographers should increase three-fold and the recruitment of midwives should be reduced by 30%.
全球医疗机构工作人员短缺问题日益严重，需要制定人力资源规划战略，以确保提供安全、及时且以患者为中心的护理服务。本文旨在分析并预测到2030年波罗的海国家最大的大学医院劳动力市场中护士、助产士和放射技师的供需情况。
根据劳动力市场每年人员的流入和流出等各种因素计算人员供给。护士、助产士和放射技师的需求预测考虑了按性别和年龄分类的人群对该机构所提供服务的不同需求。
分析凸显出到2030年预计护士和放射技师供应将严重短缺，而助产士供应预计将满足需求。2030年预计护士供应量将低于2021年。根据中等情景，2025年预计护士需求量短缺59名，前瞻性情景下短缺331名护士。到2030年，中等情景下短缺173名护士，前瞻性情景下短缺772名护士。2030年预计放射技师供应量将高于2021年。在最有可能出现的2025年前瞻性情景下，预计放射技师需求量短缺26名，2030年短缺52名放射技师。2030年预计助产士供应量将高于2021年。影响助产士需求增加的变量未超过该机构预计的供应量，这表明助产士的供需情况处于平衡状态。
由于老龄化人口对护士和放射技师服务的需求不断增加，预计护士和放射技师的供应将不足。为确保在中等和前瞻性情景下满足预计的护士需求，从2022年起，中等情景下每年招聘的护士应增加38%，前瞻性情景下应增加69%。在前瞻性需求情景下，放射技师的招聘应增加两倍，助产士的招聘应减少30%。
