Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China.
Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China;
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019 Aug 27;116(35):17193-17200. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1812881116. Epub 2019 Aug 12.
In recent years, air pollution has caused more than 1 million deaths per year in China, making it a major focus of public health efforts. However, future climate change may exacerbate such human health impacts by increasing the frequency and duration of weather conditions that enhance air pollution exposure. Here, we use a combination of climate, air quality, and epidemiological models to assess future air pollution deaths in a changing climate under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). We find that, assuming pollution emissions and population are held constant at current levels, climate change would adversely affect future air quality for >85% of China's population (∼55% of land area) by the middle of the century, and would increase by 3% and 4% the population-weighted average concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM) and ozone, respectively. As a result, we estimate an additional 12,100 and 8,900 Chinese (95% confidence interval: 10,300 to 13,800 and 2,300 to 14,700, respectively) will die per year from PM and ozone exposure, respectively. The important underlying climate mechanisms are changes in extreme conditions such as atmospheric stagnation and heat waves (contributing 39% and 6%, respectively, to the increase in mortality). Additionally, greater vulnerability of China's aging population will further increase the estimated deaths from PM and ozone in 2050 by factors of 1 and 3, respectively. Our results indicate that climate change and more intense extremes are likely to increase the risk of severe pollution events in China. Managing air quality in China in a changing climate will thus become more challenging.
近年来，空气污染在中国每年导致超过 100 万人死亡，成为公共卫生工作的重点。然而，未来的气候变化可能会通过增加增强空气污染暴露的天气条件的频率和持续时间，加剧这种对人类健康的影响。在这里，我们使用气候、空气质量和流行病学模型的组合，在代表性浓度路径 4.5（RCP4.5）下评估未来气候变化中因空气污染导致的死亡人数。我们发现，假设污染排放和人口保持在当前水平不变，到本世纪中叶，气候变化将对中国超过 85%的人口（约 55%的陆地面积）的未来空气质量产生不利影响，并将分别使细颗粒物（PM）和臭氧的人口加权平均浓度增加 3%和 4%。因此，我们估计每年将有 12100 名和 8900 名中国人（95%置信区间：10300 至 13800 名和 2300 至 14700 名，分别）因 PM 和臭氧暴露而死亡。重要的潜在气候机制是大气停滞和热浪等极端条件的变化（分别贡献了 39%和 6%的死亡率增加）。此外，中国老龄化人口的更大脆弱性将分别使 2050 年 PM 和臭氧的估计死亡人数增加 1 倍和 3 倍。我们的研究结果表明，气候变化和更强烈的极端事件可能会增加中国发生严重污染事件的风险。因此，在中国气候变化的情况下管理空气质量将变得更加具有挑战性。
