Association between Precipitation Events, Drought, and Animal Operations with Infections in the Southwest United States, 2009-2021.

BACKGROUND

Weather variability is associated with enteric infections in people through a complex interaction of human, animal, and environmental factors. Although infections have been previously associated with precipitation and temperature, the association between precipitation and drought on campylobacteriosis has not been studied.

OBJECTIVE

Using data from Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and counties in Utah, this ecological study aimed to assess the association between precipitation and the incidence of campylobacteriosis by county from 2009 to 2021 and to determine how this association is modified by prior drought level and animal operations.

METHODS

We merged 38,782 cases of campylobacteriosis reported in 127 counties with total precipitation (in inches), temperature (in average degrees Fahrenheit), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI, category), and animal census data (presence, density per square mile) by week from 2009 to 2021. Negative binomial generalized estimating equations adjusted for temperature with a 3-wk lag were used to explore the association between precipitation on campylobacteriosis with resulting incidence rate ratios (IRRs). Stratified analyses explored the association with precipitation following antecedent drought, presence of farm operations, and animal density.

RESULTS

A 1-in () increase in precipitation was associated with a 3% increase in campylobacteriosis reported 3 wks later (1.03; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.04) after adjusting for average temperature and PDSI. Compared with normal conditions, there were significantly more cases when precipitation followed antecedent extremely wet (1.15; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.26), very wet (1.09; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.18), moderately wet (1.06; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.12), moderate drought (1.11; 95% CI: 1.07, 1.16), and severe drought (1.06; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.11) conditions, whereas there were significantly fewer cases (0.89; 95% CI: 0.85, 0.94) for antecedent extreme drought. Compared to counties with no animal operations, counties with animal operations had significantly more cases following precipitation for every PDSI category except extreme drought. Counties with a higher density of beef cattle, goats for meat, chicken broilers, and chicken layers had significantly higher rates of campylobacteriosis following precipitation than those with no such operations, whereas those with dairy cattle and goats for milk, did not.

DISCUSSION

In this majority arid and semiarid environment, precipitation following prior wet conditions and moderate and severe drought were significantly associated with increased rates of campylobacteriosis, and only in prior extreme drought did rates decrease. Where the precipitation fell made a difference; after precipitation, counties with farm operations had significantly more cases compared to counties without farm operations. Further work should assess individual-level risk factors within environmental exposure pathways for . https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14693.