Department of Acute Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China.
Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.
Virol J. 2024 Sep 20;21(1):226. doi: 10.1186/s12985-024-02494-9.
Respiratory infectious diseases have the highest incidence among infectious diseases worldwide. Currently, global monitoring of respiratory pathogens primarily focuses on influenza and coronaviruses. This study included influenza and other common respiratory pathogens to establish a local respiratory pathogen spectrum. We investigated and analyzed the co-infection patterns of these pathogens and explored the impact of lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the transmission of influenza and other respiratory pathogens. Additionally, we used a predictive model for infectious diseases, utilizing the commonly used An autoregressive comprehensive moving average model (ARIMA), which can effectively forecast disease incidence.
From June 2023 to February 2024, we collected influenza-like illness (ILI) cases weekly from the community in Xuanwu District, Nanjing, and obtained 2046 samples. We established a spectrum of respiratory pathogens in Nanjing and analysed the age distribution and clinical symptom distribution of various pathogens. We compared age, gender, symptom counts, and viral loads between individuals with co-infections and those with single infections. An autoregressive comprehensive moving average model (ARIMA) was constructed to predict the incidence of respiratory infectious diseases.
Among 2046 samples, the total detection rate of respiratory pathogen nucleic acids was 53.37% (1092/2046), with influenza A virus 479 cases (23.41%), influenza B virus 224 cases (10.95%), and HCoV 95 cases (4.64%) being predominant. Some pathogens were statistically significant in age and number of symptoms. The positive rate of mixed infections was 6.11% (125/2046). There was no significant difference in age or number of symptoms between co-infection and simple infection. After multiple iterative analyses, an ARIMA model (0,1,4), (0,0,0) was established as the optimal model, with an R value of 0.930, indicating good predictive performance.
The spectrum of respiratory pathogens in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, was complex in the past. The primary age groups of different viruses were different, causing various symptoms, and the co-infection of viruses did not correlate with the age and gender of patients. The ARIMA model estimated future incidence, which plateaued in subsequent months.
呼吸道传染病在全球传染病中发病率最高。目前，全球对呼吸道病原体的监测主要集中在流感和冠状病毒上。本研究纳入了流感和其他常见呼吸道病原体，建立了当地呼吸道病原体谱。我们调查和分析了这些病原体的混合感染模式，并探讨了取消非药物干预（NPI）对流感和其他呼吸道病原体传播的影响。此外，我们使用传染病预测模型，利用常用的自回归综合移动平均模型（ARIMA），可以有效地预测疾病发病率。
从 2023 年 6 月到 2024 年 2 月，我们每周从南京玄武区社区收集流感样病例（ILI），共获得 2046 个样本。我们建立了南京呼吸道病原体谱，并分析了各种病原体的年龄分布和临床症状分布。我们比较了混合感染和单一感染个体之间的年龄、性别、症状数和病毒载量。构建了自回归综合移动平均模型（ARIMA）来预测呼吸道传染病的发病率。
在 2046 个样本中，呼吸道病原体核酸总检出率为 53.37%（1092/2046），其中甲型流感病毒 479 例（23.41%），乙型流感病毒 224 例（10.95%），HCoV 95 例（4.64%）为主。一些病原体在年龄和症状数上有统计学意义。混合感染的阳性率为 6.11%（125/2046）。混合感染和单纯感染个体之间的年龄或症状数无显著差异。经过多次迭代分析，建立了最优模型 ARIMA（0,1,4），（0,0,0），R 值为 0.930，表明预测性能良好。
江苏省南京市过去呼吸道病原体谱复杂，不同病毒的主要年龄组不同，引起的症状也不同，病毒的混合感染与患者的年龄和性别无关。ARIMA 模型估计未来的发病率，在随后的几个月中趋于平稳。
