Liang Jinghong, Pu Yingqi, Chen Jiaqi, Liu Meiling, Ouyang Bowen, Jin Zhengge, Ge Wenxin, Wu Zhuowen, Yang Xiuzhi, Qin Chunsong, Wang Cong, Huang Shan, Jiang Nan, Hu Lixin, Zhang Yushan, Gui Zhaohuan, Pu Xueya, Huang Shaoyi, Chen Yajun
Department of Maternal and Child Health, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Hainan Eye Hospital and Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology, Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center, Sun Yat-sen University, Haikou, China.
Br J Ophthalmol. 2025 Feb 24;109(3):362-371. doi: 10.1136/bjo-2024-325427.
Myopia is a pervasive global public health concern, particularly among the younger population. However, the escalating prevalence of myopia remains uncertain. Hence, our research aims to ascertain the global and regional prevalence of myopia, along with its occurrence within specific demographic groups.
An exhaustive literature search was performed on several databases covering the period from their inception to 27 June 2023. The global prevalence of myopia was determined by employing pooled estimates with a 95% CI, and further analysis was conducted to assess variations in prevalence estimates across different subgroups. Additionally, a time series model was utilised to forecast and fit accurately the future prevalence of myopia for the next three decades.
This study encompasses a comprehensive analysis of 276 studies, involving a total of 5 410 945 participants from 50 countries across all six continents. The findings revealed a gradual increase in pooled prevalence of myopia, ranging from 24.32% (95% CI 15.23% to 33.40%) to 35.81% (95% CI 31.70% to 39.91%), observed from 1990 to 2023, and projections indicate that this prevalence is expected to reach 36.59% in 2040 and 39.80% in 2050. Notably, individuals residing in East Asia (35.22%) or in urban areas (28.55%), female gender (33.57%), adolescents (47.00%), and high school students (45.71%) exhibit a higher proportion of myopia prevalence.
The global prevalence of childhood myopia is substantial, affecting approximately one-third of children and adolescents, with notable variations in prevalence across different demographic groups. It is anticipated that the global incidence of myopia will exceed 740 million cases by 2050.
近视是一个普遍存在的全球公共卫生问题，在年轻人群中尤为突出。然而，近视患病率不断上升的趋势仍不明确。因此，我们的研究旨在确定全球和区域近视患病率，以及其在特定人口群体中的发生情况。
对多个数据库进行了详尽的文献检索，涵盖从数据库建立至2023年6月27日的时间段。通过采用95%置信区间的合并估计值来确定全球近视患病率，并进一步分析以评估不同亚组患病率估计值的差异。此外，利用时间序列模型对未来三十年近视的患病率进行准确预测和拟合。
本研究对276项研究进行了全面分析，涉及来自六大洲50个国家的共计5410945名参与者。研究结果显示，从1990年至2023年，近视合并患病率逐渐上升，范围从24.32%（95%置信区间为15.23%至33.40%）至35.81%（95%置信区间为31.70%至39.91%），预测表明该患病率预计在2040年达到36.59%，在2050年达到39.80%。值得注意的是，居住在东亚地区（35.22%）或城市地区（28.55%）的人群、女性（33.57%）、青少年（47.00%）以及高中生（45.71%）的近视患病率比例较高。
全球儿童近视患病率很高，影响了约三分之一的儿童和青少年，不同人口群体的患病率存在显著差异。预计到2050年，全球近视发病率将超过7.4亿例。
Zotero 插件