Department of Integrative Biology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824.
Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior Program, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Apr 13;118(15). doi: 10.1073/pnas.1921854118.
As the effects of anthropogenic climate change become more severe, several approaches for deliberate climate intervention to reduce or stabilize Earth's surface temperature have been proposed. Solar radiation modification (SRM) is one potential approach to partially counteract anthropogenic warming by reflecting a small proportion of the incoming solar radiation to increase Earth's albedo. While climate science research has focused on the predicted climate effects of SRM, almost no studies have investigated the impacts that SRM would have on ecological systems. The impacts and risks posed by SRM would vary by implementation scenario, anthropogenic climate effects, geographic region, and by ecosystem, community, population, and organism. Complex interactions among Earth's climate system and living systems would further affect SRM impacts and risks. We focus here on stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI), a well-studied and relatively feasible SRM scheme that is likely to have a large impact on Earth's surface temperature. We outline current gaps in knowledge about both helpful and harmful predicted effects of SAI on ecological systems. Desired ecological outcomes might also inform development of future SAI implementation scenarios. In addition to filling these knowledge gaps, increased collaboration between ecologists and climate scientists would identify a common set of SAI research goals and improve the communication about potential SAI impacts and risks with the public. Without this collaboration, forecasts of SAI impacts will overlook potential effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services for humanity.
随着人为气候变化的影响变得更加严重,已经提出了几种旨在进行蓄意气候干预以减少或稳定地球表面温度的方法。太阳辐射管理 (SRM) 是通过反射一小部分入射太阳辐射来增加地球反照率从而部分抵消人为变暖的一种潜在方法。虽然气候科学研究主要集中在 SRM 的预测气候影响上,但几乎没有研究调查 SRM 对生态系统的影响。SRM 带来的影响和风险将因实施情景、人为气候影响、地理区域以及生态系统、群落、种群和生物体而异。地球气候系统和生命系统之间的复杂相互作用将进一步影响 SRM 的影响和风险。我们在此重点关注平流层气溶胶干预 (SAI),这是一种经过充分研究且相对可行的 SRM 方案,可能会对地球表面温度产生重大影响。我们概述了当前关于 SAI 对生态系统的有益和有害预测影响的知识空白。期望的生态结果也可能为未来的 SAI 实施情景的制定提供信息。除了填补这些知识空白之外,生态学家和气候科学家之间的加强合作将确定一组共同的 SAI 研究目标,并提高公众对潜在 SAI 影响和风险的沟通。如果没有这种合作,对 SAI 影响的预测将忽略对生物多样性和人类生态系统服务的潜在影响。