Xu Jing, Liu Hui
School of Economics, Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics, Lanzhou, 730101, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Oct 4;14(1):23067. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-73802-0.
Exploring the interaction and coupling effects within the population‒land‒water‒industry (PLWI) system is conducive to promoting high-quality regional sustainable development. Taking the lower Yellow River during the period from 2000 to 2020 as a research sample, this study used the entropy weight TOPSIS method, the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model and kernel density estimation to synthetically evaluate the CCD of the PLWI system. The GeoDetector model was applied to explore the factors influencing the CCD of the PLWI system considering the nonlinear relationship. The major results can be summarized as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the comprehensive development index (CDI) of the population, land, water and industry subsystems followed a gradual upward trend in the lower Yellow River, increasing by 0.293, 0.033, 0.111 and 0.369, respectively. However, the CDI of the land subsystem varied greatly between regions. Some cities, such as Jinan, Jining and Binzhou, experienced large declines in the CDI of the land subsystem, from 0.433, 0.534 and 0.572 to 0.358, 0.481 and 0.522, respectively. (2) The CCD of the PLWI system in the lower Yellow River showed an upward trend, increasing from 0.481 to 0.678, and became more concentrated during 2000-2020. Most of the region transitioned from near disorder to primary coordination. (3) Factors such as number of health technicians per 10,000 people, average salary, number of college students per 10,000 people, per capita GDP and per capita education expenditure were critical to the coordinated development of the PLWI system, the explanatory powers were 0.644, 0.639, 0.610, 0.498 and 0.455, respectively. Finally, this study proposed three policy recommendations to improve coupling coordination in the lower Yellow River Basin: Improving population quality, promoting green technology and rational land planning.
探索人口-土地-水-产业（PLWI）系统内部的相互作用和耦合效应，有利于推动区域高质量可持续发展。本研究以2000年至2020年期间的黄河下游地区为研究样本，采用熵权TOPSIS法、耦合协调度（CCD）模型和核密度估计法，对PLWI系统的耦合协调度进行综合评价。考虑到非线性关系，应用地理探测器模型探究影响PLWI系统耦合协调度的因素。主要研究结果如下：（1）2000年至2020年，黄河下游地区人口、土地、水和产业子系统的综合发展指数（CDI）呈逐步上升趋势，分别增长了0.293、0.033、0.111和0.369。然而，土地子系统的CDI在各地区之间差异很大。一些城市，如济南、济宁和滨州，土地子系统的CDI大幅下降，分别从0.433、0.534和0.572降至0.358、0.481和0.522。（2）黄河下游地区PLWI系统的耦合协调度呈上升趋势，从0.481升至0.678，且在2000-2020年期间变得更加集中。该区域大部分地区从接近失调转变为初级协调。（3）每万人卫生技术人员数、平均工资、每万人大学生数、人均GDP和人均教育支出等因素对PLWI系统的协调发展至关重要，解释力分别为0.644、0.639、0.610、0.498和0.455。最后，本研究提出了三项政策建议，以改善黄河下游流域的耦合协调状况：提高人口素质、推广绿色技术和合理进行土地规划。
