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从全球和大陆角度看 COVID-19 期间的船舶排放变化。

Ship emission variations during the COVID-19 from global and continental perspectives.

机构信息

State Key Joint Laboratory of ESPC, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.

Key Laboratory of Beijing on Regional Air Pollution Control, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China.

出版信息

Sci Total Environ. 2024 Dec 1;954:176633. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176633. Epub 2024 Oct 5.

DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176633
PMID:39374703
Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic and the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 2020 fuel-switching policy have profoundly impacted global maritime activities, leading to unprecedented changes in shipping emissions. This study aimed to examine the effects from different scales and investigate the underlying drivers. The big data model Ship Emission Inventory Model (SEIM) was updated and applied to analyze the spatiotemporal pattern of global ship emissions as well as the main contributors in 2019 and 2020. Overall, ships emitted NO, CO, HC, CO, and NO declined by 7.4 %-13.8 %, while SO, PM, and BC declined by 40.9 %-81.9 % in 2020 compared with 2019. The decline in CO emissions indicated a comparable reduction across vessel tonnages. Ship emissions occurring at cruising status accounted for over 90 % of the ship's CO emission reduction. Container ships, chemical tankers, and Ro-Ro vessels were the primary contributors to the emission reductions, with container ships alone responsible for 39.4 % of the CO decrease. The ship's CO emissions variations revealed the decline-rebound patterns in response to the pandemic. Asian-related routes saw emissions drop in February 2020, followed by a rebound in May, while European and American routes experienced declines starting in May, with a recovery in August. Further analysis of CO emission in Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) showed high temporal consistency between vessel CO emissions, sailing speeds, and international trade volumes across continents, and exhibited heterogeneity in main contributing ship type of emission reduction on continental scale. Our study reveals the short-term fluctuation characteristics of global ship emissions during the pandemic, particularly focusing on their spatiotemporal evolution and the inherent disparities. The results highlight the correlation between global ship emissions and trade, as well as the operational status of ships, and their rigidity.

摘要

新冠疫情和国际海事组织(IMO)2020 年的燃料转换政策对全球海事活动产生了深远影响,导致航运排放量出现前所未有的变化。本研究旨在考察不同规模的影响,并探讨潜在驱动因素。我们更新了大数据模型 Ship Emission Inventory Model(SEIM)并将其应用于分析 2019 年和 2020 年全球船舶排放的时空格局以及主要贡献者。总体而言,与 2019 年相比,2020 年船舶排放的 NOx、CO、HC、CO 和 NO 下降了 7.4%-13.8%,而 SO、PM 和 BC 下降了 40.9%-81.9%。CO 排放量的下降表明所有船舶吨位的排放量都有可比的减少。巡航状态下的船舶排放占船舶 CO 减排量的 90%以上。集装箱船、化学品船和滚装船是排放减少的主要贡献者,仅集装箱船就占 CO 减少量的 39.4%。船舶 CO 排放量的变化揭示了疫情下的下降-反弹模式。2020 年 2 月亚洲相关航线的排放量下降,随后在 5 月反弹,而欧洲和美洲航线则从 5 月开始下降,8 月开始恢复。对专属经济区(EEZ)内 CO 排放的进一步分析表明,船舶 CO 排放、航行速度和各大洲国际贸易量之间存在高度的时间一致性,并表现出大陆尺度上主要贡献船型减排的异质性。本研究揭示了疫情期间全球船舶排放的短期波动特征,特别关注其时空演变和内在差异。结果突出了全球船舶排放与贸易以及船舶运营状况和刚性之间的相关性。

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