Location, Age, and Antibodies Predict Avian Influenza Virus Shedding in Ring-Billed and Franklin's Gulls in Minnesota.

Influenza A virus (IAV) is a multi-host pathogen maintained in water birds and capable of spillover into humans, wildlife, and livestock. Prior research has focused on dabbling ducks as a known IAV reservoir species, yet our understanding of influenza dynamics in other water birds, including gulls, is lacking. Here, we quantify morphological and environmental drivers of serological (antibody detection by ELISA) and virological (viral RNA detection by PCR) prevalence in two gull species: ring-billed () and Franklin's () gulls. Across 12 months and 10 locations, we tested over 1500 gulls for influenza viral RNA, and additionally tested antibody levels in nearly 1000 of these. We find substantial virus prevalence and a large, nonoverlapping seroprevalence, with significant differences across age and species classifications. The body condition index had minimal explanatory power to predict (sero)positivity, and the effect of the surrounding environment was idiosyncratic. Our results hint at a nontrivial relationship between virus and seropositivity, highlighting serological surveillance as a valuable counterpoint to PCR. By providing indication of both past infections and susceptibility to future infections, serosurveillance can help inform the distribution of limited resources to maximize surveillance effectiveness for a disease of high human, wildlife, and livestock concern.