Macinnis-Ng Cate, Ziedins Ilze, Ajmal Hamza, Baisden W Troy, Hendy Shaun, McDonald Adrian, Priestley Rebecca, Salmon Rhian A, Sharp Emma L, Tonkin Jonathan D, Velarde Sandra, Watene Ngāti Manu Te Hikutu Ngāti Whātua Ōrākei Tonga Krushil, Godsoe William
Te Pūnaha Matatini, Centre for Research Excellence in Complex Systems, Auckland, New Zealand.
School of Biological Sciences, Waipapa Taumata Rau - University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
J R Soc N Z. 2023 Oct 19;54(4):523-546. doi: 10.1080/03036758.2023.2267016. eCollection 2024.
Many of the implications of climate change for Aotearoa (New Zealand) remain unclear. To identify so-far unseen or understudied threats and opportunities related to climate change we applied a horizon-scanning process. First, we collated 171 threats and opportunities across our diverse fields of research. We then scored each item for novelty and potential impact and finally reduced the list to ten threats and ten opportunities through a prioritisation process. Within the 20 items presented in this paper, we uncover a range of climate-related costs and benefits. Unexpected opportunities evolve from economic reorganisation and changes to perspectives. The threats we highlight include the overall failure to interconnect siloed policy responses, as well as those relating to extreme events and feedbacks, as well as pressures that undermine the coherence of society. A major theme of our work is that climate change effects in Aotearoa are likely to transgress the boundaries of research disciplines, industry sectors and policy systems, emphasising the importance of developing transdisciplinary methods and approaches. We use this insight to connect potential responses to climate change with Aotearoa's culture and geography.
气候变化对奥特亚罗瓦（新西兰）的许多影响仍不明确。为了识别与气候变化相关的迄今未被发现或研究不足的威胁和机遇，我们采用了一种前瞻性扫描方法。首先，我们整理了来自不同研究领域的171个威胁和机遇。然后，我们对每个项目的新颖性和潜在影响进行评分，最后通过优先排序过程将清单缩减至十个威胁和十个机遇。在本文列出的20个项目中，我们发现了一系列与气候相关的成本和收益。经济重组和观念转变带来了意想不到的机遇。我们强调的威胁包括孤立的政策应对措施总体上缺乏相互联系，以及与极端事件和反馈相关的威胁，还有破坏社会凝聚力的压力。我们工作的一个主要主题是，奥特亚罗瓦的气候变化影响可能会跨越研究学科、行业部门和政策体系的界限，这凸显了开发跨学科方法和途径的重要性。我们利用这一见解将应对气候变化的潜在措施与奥特亚罗瓦的文化和地理联系起来。
