Hong Yoon Duk, Howlader Nadia, Noone Anne-Michelle, Mariotto Angela B
Surveillance Research Program, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD 20892, United States.
Kelly Services, Inc, Rockville, MD 20892, United States.
J Natl Cancer Inst. 2025 May 1;117(5):1064-1068. doi: 10.1093/jnci/djae271.
The COVID-19 pandemic had a substantial impact on health-care delivery. We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data to assess changes in 1-year relative survival and competing risk probabilities of cancer and non-cancer death for patients diagnosed in 2018 Q2 (pre-pandemic) and 2020 Q2 (pandemic). For all cancer sites combined, 1-year relative survival declined from 82.3% in 2018 Q2 to 77.5% in 2020 Q2, with the steepest declines seen in stomach, leukemia, and liver cancers. However, survival improved nearing pre-pandemic levels during 2020 Q3. Competing risk survival measures revealed that the decline in 1-year survival was driven by increases in both the probability of dying of cancer (rising from 15.4% to 19.2%) and of other causes, including COVID-19 (rising from 3.8% to 5.2%). The pandemic led to substantial declines in survival and increased mortality from both cancer and other causes for patients diagnosed in 2020 Q2.
新冠疫情对医疗服务产生了重大影响。我们利用监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据，评估了2018年第二季度（疫情前）和2020年第二季度（疫情期间）确诊患者的1年相对生存率以及癌症和非癌症死亡的竞争风险概率变化。对于所有癌症部位综合来看，1年相对生存率从2018年第二季度的82.3%降至2020年第二季度的77.5%，其中胃癌、白血病和肝癌下降最为明显。然而，在2020年第三季度，生存率有所改善，接近疫情前水平。竞争风险生存指标显示，1年生存率下降是由于死于癌症的概率（从15.4%升至19.2%）和包括新冠疫情在内的其他原因导致的死亡概率（从3.8%升至5.2%）均有所增加。疫情导致2020年第二季度确诊患者的生存率大幅下降，癌症和其他原因导致的死亡率均有所上升。
