Tanaka Hirokazu, Nomura Shuhei, Katanoda Kota
Division of Population Data Science, National Cancer Center Institute for Cancer Control.
Keio University Global Research Institute (KGRI).
J Epidemiol. 2025 Mar 5;35(3):154-159. doi: 10.2188/jea.JE20240158. Epub 2025 Jan 31.
Amidst the global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, Japan has faced a significant public health challenge, evident from the significant increase in mortality rates since 2021. This study described the variations in all-cause and cause-specific changes in mortality up to 2022 in Japan.
This study used official Vital Statistics from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) to assess the impact of the pandemic on mortality trends. An analysis of all-cause and cause-specific age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) from 1995 to 2022 was conducted, employing the 2015 Japan Standard Population. Sex- and cause-specific ASMRs for a particular year were compared with those from the preceding year to assess annual changes.
Among men, the annual all-cause ASMR per 100,000 people increased from 1,356.3 in 2021 to 1,437.8 in 2022 (6.0% increase). Among women, the annual all-cause ASMR increased from 722.1 in 2021 to 785.8 in 2022 (6.5% increase). Compared with the period 2020 to 2021, COVID-19 (+29.1 per 100,000 people for men and +13.4 per 100,000 people for women), senility (+14.1 per 100,000 people for men and +12.5 per 100,000 people for women), heart disease, malignant neoplasms (for women) and "other causes not classified as major causes" substantially contributed to the increase in all-cause ASMR from 2021 to 2022.
Further long-term monitoring from 2023 onwards is necessary, especially for conditions like senility, cardiovascular disease, and cancer, which may have long-term effects due to changes in healthcare settings, even though the strong countermeasures against COVID-19 were lifted in 2023.
在全球2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行期间，日本面临着重大的公共卫生挑战，自2021年以来死亡率大幅上升就明显体现了这一点。本研究描述了截至2022年日本全因死亡率和特定病因死亡率的变化情况。
本研究使用了厚生劳动省的官方人口动态统计数据来评估大流行对死亡率趋势的影响。采用2015年日本标准人口，对1995年至2022年的全因和特定病因年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）进行了分析。将某一年的性别和特定病因ASMR与上一年的进行比较，以评估年度变化。
在男性中，每10万人的年度全因ASMR从2021年的1356.3上升至2022年的1437.8（增长6.0%）。在女性中，年度全因ASMR从2021年的722.1上升至2022年的785.8（增长6.5%）。与2020年至2021年期间相比，COVID-19（男性每10万人增加29.1，女性每10万人增加13.4）、衰老（男性每10万人增加14.1，女性每10万人增加12.5）、心脏病、恶性肿瘤（女性）以及“未归类为主要病因的其他病因”对2021年至2022年全因ASMR的上升有显著贡献。
从2023年起有必要进行进一步的长期监测，特别是对于衰老、心血管疾病和癌症等可能因医疗环境变化而产生长期影响的疾病，尽管2023年针对COVID-19的强有力对策已经解除。
