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孟加拉国 COVID-19 疫苗接种模型的定性和分岔分析的见解。

Insights from qualitative and bifurcation analysis of COVID-19 vaccination model in Bangladesh.

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, Bangladesh.

Department of Mathematics, Comilla University, Cumilla, Bangladesh.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2024 Nov 1;19(11):e0312780. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0312780. eCollection 2024.

Abstract

The unprecedented global impact of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has necessitated a comprehensive understanding of its transmission dynamics and control measures. In this study, we present a detailed analysis of a COVID-19 vaccination model tailored to the context of Bangladesh, incorporating dual-dose vaccination strategies. By employing qualitative and bifurcation analysis techniques, we investigate the equilibrium points, effective reproduction number (R0), and critical thresholds that influence the prevalence and control of COVID-19 in the region. Our findings reveal insights into the effectiveness of vaccination programs and provide a framework for developing targeted control plans. Through a rigorous examination of model parameters and sensitivity analysis, we identify key factors driving COVID-19 transmission dynamics, emphasizing the significance of vaccination rates and other critical parameters. The validation of our model against real-world data underscores its utility in informing evidence-based decision-making for managing the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh and beyond.

摘要

2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)在全球前所未有的影响,需要全面了解其传播动力学和控制措施。在这项研究中,我们针对孟加拉国的情况,提出了一个 COVID-19 疫苗接种模型的详细分析,该模型结合了双剂量疫苗接种策略。通过使用定性和分支分析技术,我们研究了影响该地区 COVID-19 流行和控制的平衡点、有效繁殖数(R0)和临界阈值。我们的研究结果揭示了疫苗接种计划的有效性,并为制定有针对性的控制计划提供了框架。通过对模型参数的严格检查和敏感性分析,我们确定了驱动 COVID-19 传播动力学的关键因素,强调了疫苗接种率和其他关键参数的重要性。我们的模型与实际数据的验证突出了其在为管理孟加拉国和其他地区的 COVID-19 大流行提供循证决策方面的实用性。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bfc3/11530044/d841a3278985/pone.0312780.g001.jpg

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