Gu Yu, Ullah Saif, Khan Muhammad Altaf, Alshahrani Mohammad Y, Abohassan Mohammad, Riaz Muhammad Bilal
College of Mathematics and Information Science, Xiangnan University, Chenzhou 423000, PR China.
Department of Mathematics University of Peshawar, Peshawar, Pakistan.
Results Phys. 2022 Mar;34:105284. doi: 10.1016/j.rinp.2022.105284. Epub 2022 Feb 8.
The present paper focuses on the modeling of the COVID-19 infection with the use of hospitalization, isolation and quarantine. Initially, we construct the model by spliting the entire population into different groups. We then rigorously analyze the model by presenting the necessary basic mathematical features including the feasible region and positivity of the problem solution. Further, we evaluate the model possible equilibria. The theoretical expression of the most important mathematical quantity of major public health interest called the basic reproduction number is presented. We are taking into account to study the disease free equilibrium by studying its local and global asymptotical analysis. We considering the cases of the COVID-19 infection of Pakistan population and find the parameters using the estimation with the help of nonlinear least square and have . Further, to determine the influence of the model parameters on disease dynamics we perform the sensitivity analysis. Simulations of the model are presented using estimated parameters and the impact of various non-pharmaceutical interventions on disease dynamics is shown with the help of graphical results. The graphical interpretation justify that the effective utilization of keeping the social-distancing, making the quarantine of people (or contact-tracing policy) and to make hospitalization of confirmed infected people that dramatically reduces the number of infected individuals (enhancing the quarantine or contact-tracing by 50% from its baseline reduces 84% in the predicted number of confirmed infected cases). Moreover, it is observed that without quarantine and hospitalization the scenario of the disease in Pakistan is very worse and the infected cases are raising rapidly. Therefore, the present study suggests that still, a proper and effective application of these non-pharmaceutical interventions are necessary to curtail or minimize the COVID-19 infection in Pakistan.
本文重点研究利用住院、隔离和检疫对新冠肺炎感染进行建模。首先，我们通过将整个人口划分为不同群体来构建模型。然后，我们通过呈现包括问题解的可行域和正性等必要的基本数学特征来严格分析该模型。此外，我们评估模型可能的平衡点。给出了称为基本再生数的主要公共卫生关注的最重要数学量的理论表达式。我们考虑通过研究其局部和全局渐近分析来研究无病平衡点。我们考虑巴基斯坦人群的新冠肺炎感染情况，并借助非线性最小二乘法估计来确定参数。此外，为了确定模型参数对疾病动态的影响，我们进行敏感性分析。使用估计参数给出模型的模拟结果，并借助图形结果展示各种非药物干预对疾病动态的影响。图形解释表明，有效利用保持社交距离、对人员进行隔离（或接触者追踪政策）以及对确诊感染者进行住院治疗，可显著减少感染个体数量（将隔离或接触者追踪从基线提高50%可使预测的确诊感染病例数减少84%）。此外，观察到如果没有隔离和住院治疗，巴基斯坦的疾病情况会非常糟糕，感染病例会迅速增加。因此，本研究表明，为了减少或最小化巴基斯坦的新冠肺炎感染，仍然需要适当且有效地应用这些非药物干预措施。
