Martínez-Sánchez Álvaro, Arranz Gonzalo, Lozano-Durán Adrián
Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Graduate Aerospace Laboratories, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA.
Nat Commun. 2024 Nov 1;15(1):9296. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-53373-4.
Causality lies at the heart of scientific inquiry, serving as the fundamental basis for understanding interactions among variables in physical systems. Despite its central role, current methods for causal inference face significant challenges due to nonlinear dependencies, stochastic interactions, self-causation, collider effects, and influences from exogenous factors, among others. While existing methods can effectively address some of these challenges, no single approach has successfully integrated all these aspects. Here, we address these challenges with SURD: Synergistic-Unique-Redundant Decomposition of causality. SURD quantifies causality as the increments of redundant, unique, and synergistic information gained about future events from past observations. The formulation is non-intrusive and applicable to both computational and experimental investigations, even when samples are scarce. We benchmark SURD in scenarios that pose significant challenges for causal inference and demonstrate that it offers a more reliable quantification of causality compared to previous methods.
因果关系是科学探究的核心,是理解物理系统中变量间相互作用的根本基础。尽管其处于核心地位,但由于存在非线性依赖、随机相互作用、自因果关系、对撞机效应以及外生因素的影响等,当前的因果推断方法面临重大挑战。虽然现有方法能够有效应对其中一些挑战,但尚无单一方法成功整合所有这些方面。在此,我们通过SURD(因果关系的协同 - 独特 - 冗余分解)来应对这些挑战。SURD将因果关系量化为从过去观测中获得的关于未来事件的冗余、独特和协同信息的增量。该公式是非侵入性的,适用于计算和实验研究,即使样本稀缺时也适用。我们在对因果推断构成重大挑战的场景中对SURD进行基准测试,并证明与先前方法相比,它能提供更可靠的因果关系量化。