Institute of Transport Economics, Gaustadalleen 21, 0349 Oslo, Norway.
Accid Anal Prev. 2025 Jan;209:107831. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2024.107831. Epub 2024 Nov 1.
Violations of road traffic law are widespread in all countries. Probably the most common violation is speeding. It is not uncommon that 50 % of vehicles are speeding. Little is known about the risk of apprehension for various traffic law violations, although it is often assumed that nearly all violations go undetected. This paper quantifies the risk of apprehension for common traffic law violations in Norway, based on data for the period 2006-2022. The violations included are speeding, non-use of seat belts, driving with an illegal blood alcohol concentration (above 0.02 %), driving while impaired by medicines or illegal drugs, use of a hand-held mobile phone while driving and violations of the regulations of hours of service and rest for drivers of heavy vehicles. Risk of apprehension is stated as the number of detected violations per million vehicle kilometres driven while committing the violation. The risk of apprehension is in most cases between 10 and 50 per million vehicle kilometres driven while committing a violation. This is quite low. For speeding, the risk of apprehension was between 10 and 12 per million vehicle kilometres of speeding during 2006-2022. For an average driver, this means that he or she could speed on every trip for about 8-10 years before getting caught. Reducing traffic law violations may contribute to a large reduction of the number of traffic fatalities.
违反道路交通法规在所有国家都很普遍。最常见的违规行为可能是超速。有 50%的车辆超速行驶并不罕见。尽管人们通常认为几乎所有的违规行为都未被发现，但对于各种交通违法行为被逮捕的风险知之甚少。本文基于 2006-2022 年的数据，量化了在挪威常见交通违法行为被逮捕的风险。违规行为包括超速、不系安全带、酒后驾车（血液酒精浓度超过 0.02%）、服用药物或非法毒品后驾车、驾车时使用手持移动电话以及违反重型车辆驾驶员工时和休息规定。被捕风险表示在实施违规行为时每百万车公里检测到的违规行为数量。在大多数情况下，实施违规行为时被捕的风险在每百万车公里 10 到 50 之间。这是相当低的。在 2006-2022 年期间，超速的被捕风险在每百万车公里超速行驶 10 到 12 之间。对于一般驾驶员来说，这意味着他或她可能在每次驾驶中都超速，大约需要 8-10 年才会被抓到。减少交通违法行为可能有助于大量减少交通死亡人数。
