Chen Yan, Davidson Michael, Liu Yu, Liu Dachuan, Zhang Huawei, Wang Chaozi, Fan Xinyu, Ren Muzhen, Wang Pu
Beijing Institute of Technology, School of Economics, Beijing 100081, China.
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.15 Zhongguancun Beiyitiao Alley, Haidian District, Beijing 100190, China.
iScience. 2024 Sep 30;27(11):111041. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2024.111041. eCollection 2024 Nov 15.
China, holding nearly half of the global coal-fired power capacity, must shift from its coal-centric energy system to meet climate and air quality goals. This study explores the optimal utilization of natural gas by evaluating the environmental and economic costs of gas- and coal-fired power using plant-level data and a multidisciplinary modeling approach. We find that gas power has substantially lower air pollution costs (0.77 versus 12.2 cents/kWh) and moderately lower GHG costs (2.8 versus 4.5 cents/kWh), with an average environmental advantage of 12.1 cents/kWh and a social benefit of 10.4 cents/kWh when considering LCOE. The benefits vary spatially with the highest benefits in east-central China. Prioritizing substitution in regions with high environmental benefits could reduce SO, NO , and PM emissions by 28%, 15%, and 56%, respectively, offering a 52% higher environmental benefit than existing gas power plans. This study provides quantitative support for gas power development in China.
中国拥有全球近一半的煤电装机容量，必须从以煤炭为中心的能源系统转型，以实现气候和空气质量目标。本研究通过使用电厂层面的数据和多学科建模方法，评估燃气和燃煤发电的环境和经济成本，探索天然气的最优利用方式。我们发现，燃气发电的空气污染成本大幅降低（0.77美分/千瓦时对12.2美分/千瓦时），温室气体成本略有降低（2.8美分/千瓦时对4.5美分/千瓦时），考虑到平准化度电成本时，平均环境优势为12.1美分/千瓦时，社会效益为10.4美分/千瓦时。这些效益在空间上有所不同，在中国中东部地区效益最高。优先在环境效益高的地区进行替代，可分别减少二氧化硫、氮氧化物和颗粒物排放28%、15%和56%，比现有燃气发电计划的环境效益高出52%。本研究为中国燃气发电发展提供了定量支持。
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