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评估气候变化对高山地区陆地生计的影响:巴基斯坦吉尔吉特-巴尔蒂斯坦纳加尔地区的实证调查

Assessing the impacts of climate change on high mountain land-based livelihoods: An empirical investigation in District Nagar, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan.

作者信息

Ali Iftikhar, Shah Ashfaq Ahmad, Alotaibi Bader Alhafi, Ali Amjad

机构信息

College of Humanities and Development Studies (COHD), China Agricultural University (CAU), No. 2 Yuanmingyuan West Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100193, PR China.

Department of Development Studies, Karakoram International University (Hunza Campus), Gilgit, Pakistan.

出版信息

Heliyon. 2024 Oct 30;10(21):e39877. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e39877. eCollection 2024 Nov 15.

Abstract

Land-based livelihoods in Pakistan's high mountain regions are highly vulnerable to climate change due to the complex interactions between people and their natural environment. This study uses a mixed-method approach to explore how climate change affects land-based livelihoods in the high mountain Nagar District, Pakistan. Data were collected using a structured household survey of 430 randomly selected farmers, supplemented by focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The findings reveal that 87.7 % of farmers have observed negative impacts of climate change, such as increased crop diseases, reduced water for irrigation, and lower crop yields. Bivariate results indicate that factors related to farming practices, such as farming experience and cropping zones, significantly influence farmers' perceptions of impacts. The study emphasizes the urgent need for targeted government intervention and agricultural planning to boost the resilience of farmers in Nagar District. It calls for improved irrigation, crop disease management, and support tailored to high-mountain farming practices. The research highlights the importance of developing adaptation strategies to protect vulnerable farming communities from climate change impacts and supports the need for effective autonomous adaptation measures. This research contributes to a better understanding of climate change impacts on high-mountain agriculture and emphasizes the need to safeguard vulnerable farming communities.

摘要

由于人类与其自然环境之间存在复杂的相互作用,巴基斯坦高山地区的陆地生计极易受到气候变化的影响。本研究采用混合方法,探讨气候变化如何影响巴基斯坦高山地区纳加尔县的陆地生计。通过对430名随机抽取的农民进行结构化家庭调查收集数据,并辅以焦点小组讨论和关键信息人访谈。研究结果显示,87.7%的农民观察到了气候变化的负面影响,如作物病害增加、灌溉用水减少和作物产量降低。双变量结果表明,与耕作方式相关的因素,如耕作经验和种植区,对农民对影响的认知有显著影响。该研究强调政府迫切需要进行有针对性的干预和农业规划,以提高纳加尔县农民的适应能力。研究呼吁改善灌溉、作物病害管理,并提供适合高山耕作方式的支持。该研究突出了制定适应战略以保护脆弱农业社区免受气候变化影响的重要性,并支持采取有效的自主适应措施的必要性。这项研究有助于更好地理解气候变化对高山农业的影响,并强调保护脆弱农业社区的必要性。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f884/11567026/7c06a128e8df/gr1.jpg

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