Zhang Shun-Xian, Liu Yu-Juan, Tan En-Li, Yang Guo-Bing, Wang Yu, Hu Xiao-Jie, Li Ming-Zi, Duan Lei, Lv Shan, Tian Li-Guang, Chen Mu-Xin, Wei Fan-Na, Liu Qin, Lu Yan, Li Shi-Zhu, Yang Pin, Zheng Jin-Xin
Longhua Hospital, Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shanghai 200032, China.
NHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), Shanghai 200025, China.
Sci One Health. 2024 Oct 22;3:100084. doi: 10.1016/j.soh.2024.100084. eCollection 2024.
Upper respiratory infections (URIs) are common infectious diseases worldwide. Accurate and timely assessment of the disease burden of URIs is crucial for governments to develop comprehensive prevention and control strategies, and to allocate and utilize healthcare resources more efficiently.
For URIs in Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and case numbers for incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs across the globe, five socio-demographic index (SDI) regions, 21 geographical regions, and 204 countries and territories were provided and analyzed. Trends from 1990 to 2021 were described using the average annual percentage change (AAPC), and future URIs burden was projected with a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model.
From 1990 to 2021, there was a significant decline in global ASIR (APCC = -289.86, 95% confidence interval []: -298.59 to -281.12), ASPR (AAPC = -4.04, 95% : -4.16 to -3.92), ASMR (AAPC = -0.02, 95 % : -0.02 to -0.03) and age-standardized DALY rate (AAPC = -0.75, 95% : -0.76 to -0.74). The ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and age-standardized DALY rate were high in elderly for both males and females, and both genders. Similarly, the number of incident cases, prevalence cases, deaths, and DALY cases for URIs was highest in children under five years. The ASMR and age-standardized DALY rate exhibited a negative correlation with SDI across 204 countries and territories in 2021. The ASIR and ASPR for URIs will show an upward trend from 2022 to 2050, while ASMR and age-standardized DALY rate are expected to decline. Low birth weight for gestation remains the leading contributor to deaths related to URIs.
Despite the global decline in URIs burden, significant challenges remain among the elderly population. These findings support the optimization and implementation of public health policies, including targeted vaccination and integrated One Health approaches to reduce the burden in high-risk populations.
上呼吸道感染（URIs）是全球常见的传染病。准确及时地评估上呼吸道感染的疾病负担对于政府制定全面的预防和控制策略，以及更有效地分配和利用医疗资源至关重要。
对于全球疾病负担（GBD）2021数据库中的上呼吸道感染，提供并分析了全球、五个社会人口指数（SDI）区域、21个地理区域以及204个国家和地区的年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）、年龄标准化患病率（ASPR）、年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）、伤残调整生命年（DALYs）以及发病率、患病率、死亡数和DALYs的病例数。使用平均年度百分比变化（AAPC）描述了1990年至2021年的趋势，并采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型预测了未来上呼吸道感染的负担。
1990年至2021年，全球ASIR（AAPC = -289.86，95%置信区间[]：-298.59至-281.12）、ASPR（AAPC = -4.04，95%：-4.16至-3.92）、ASMR（AAPC = -0.02，95%：-0.02至-0.03）和年龄标准化DALY率（AAPC = -0.75，95%：-0.76至-0.74）均显著下降。男性和女性老年人的ASIR、ASPR、ASMR和年龄标准化DALY率均较高。同样，五岁以下儿童的上呼吸道感染发病病例数、患病病例数、死亡数和DALY病例数最高。2021年，204个国家和地区的ASMR和年龄标准化DALY率与SDI呈负相关。2022年至2050年，上呼吸道感染的ASIR和ASPR将呈上升趋势，而ASMR和年龄标准化DALY率预计将下降。低出生体重仍然是上呼吸道感染相关死亡的主要原因。
尽管全球上呼吸道感染负担有所下降，但老年人群仍面临重大挑战。这些发现支持优化和实施公共卫生政策，包括针对性疫苗接种和综合“同一健康”方法，以减轻高危人群的负担。
