Alfaro Miguel, Rubio Carlos, Fuertes Guillermo, Vargas Manuel, Mejia-Giraldo Armando
Industrial Engineering Department, University of Santiago de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de San Buenaventura, Cali, Colombia.
PLoS One. 2024 Dec 2;19(12):e0311414. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0311414. eCollection 2024.
The Covid-19 pandemic has challenged both the scientific community and government authorities in Colombia. Both sectors are collaborating to understand the transmission and spread of the virus and to establish control strategies. This study proposes a biomathematical model with difference equations to analyze the transmission of Covid-19 in Santiago de Cali from March 2020 to June 2022. The results indicate that most of the inhabitants could be positive at some point, but with containment measures, a manageable number of symptomatic cases could be maintained. In addition, the cumulative fatality curve is fitted to the Gompertz model. The method used for parameter fitting or estimation was Gauss-Newton. This approach provides valuable information for decision making and pandemic management in the city.
新冠疫情给哥伦比亚的科学界和政府当局都带来了挑战。这两个部门正在合作，以了解病毒的传播和扩散情况，并制定控制策略。本研究提出了一个带有差分方程的生物数学模型，用于分析2020年3月至2022年6月期间新冠病毒在卡利市圣地亚哥的传播情况。结果表明，大多数居民在某个时候可能呈阳性，但通过采取遏制措施，可以维持数量可控的有症状病例。此外，累积死亡曲线符合冈珀茨模型。用于参数拟合或估计的方法是高斯-牛顿法。这种方法为该市的决策和疫情管理提供了有价值的信息。
