Lamichhane Nabin, Dhami Urmila, Dhakal Durga, Thapa Lal Bahadur
Central Department of Botany Tribhuvan University Kirtipur Kathmandu Nepal.
Dhading Polytechnic Institute Council for Technical and Vocational Education and Training (CTEVT) Dhading Nepal.
Plant Environ Interact. 2024 Dec 6;5(6):e70020. doi: 10.1002/pei3.70020. eCollection 2024 Dec.
Rice is the most important staple crop in Nepal, playing a critical role in both the economy and food security. This study analyzes the trends in rice cultivation, production, imports, and exports from fiscal years 2011/2012 to 2021/2022 and also presents population data from the initial and final years. Over the study period, the area of rice cultivation declined by 0.81% annually, while the production grew by 1.5% per year, and the yield improved at a rate of 1.97% per year. Trend analysis indicated no significant changes in cultivation area or production, but a significant positive trend was observed in the yield. Rice import showed a significant annual increase of 5.61% in price value and 12.80% in quantity, while exports also grew by 1.95% in quantity and 2.39% in value. However, exports remain negligible compared to imports. Nepal's rice self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) has declined by 1.15% annually, falling from 92.72% in 2011/2012 to 82.01% in 2021/2022 while its import dependency ratio (IDR) has increased by 5.89% annually. These trends suggest that Nepal is becoming increasingly vulnerable in terms of rice food security. Population dynamics based on two census records revealed a notable 14% rise in the foreign population. This situation underscores the urgent need for policy interventions to address the decline in rice self-sufficiency, labor shortages, and growing import dependency, ensuring sustainable rice production and food security in Nepal.
水稻是尼泊尔最重要的主食作物，在经济和粮食安全方面都发挥着关键作用。本研究分析了2011/2012财年至2021/2022财年尼泊尔水稻种植、生产、进口和出口的趋势，并提供了初始年份和最终年份的人口数据。在研究期间，水稻种植面积每年下降0.81%，而产量每年增长1.5%，单产每年提高1.97%。趋势分析表明，种植面积和产量没有显著变化，但单产呈现显著的正增长趋势。水稻进口价格价值每年显著增长5.61%，数量增长12.80%，出口数量增长1.95%，价值增长2.39%。然而，与进口相比，出口仍然微不足道。尼泊尔的水稻自给率（SSR）每年下降1.15%，从2011/2012年的92.72%降至2021/2022年的82.01%，而其进口依存度（IDR）每年增长5.89%。这些趋势表明，尼泊尔在水稻粮食安全方面正变得越来越脆弱。基于两次人口普查记录的人口动态显示，外国人口显著增加了14%。这种情况凸显了迫切需要采取政策干预措施，以应对水稻自给率下降、劳动力短缺和进口依存度不断上升的问题，确保尼泊尔水稻生产和粮食安全的可持续性。
