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黑/白死亡率交叉现象:基于社区研究的调查

The black/white mortality crossover: investigation in a community-based study.

作者信息

Wing S, Manton K G, Stallard E, Hames C G, Tryoler H A

出版信息

J Gerontol. 1985 Jan;40(1):78-84. doi: 10.1093/geronj/40.1.78.

Abstract

The black/white mortality crossover at about age 75, a result of lower white mortality rates at younger ages and lower black rates at the oldest ages, has been observed in U.S. vital statistics since 1900. Though a persistant observation in such data, its validity has been challenged by questions about census enumeration and age reporting on death certificates. Analyses of 20 years experience of all-cause mortality in the community-based Evans County Study using a Weibull model of age specific mortality rates showed a statistically significant black/white mortality crossover for both men (at age 73) and women (at age 85). The finding of a crossover in this longitudinally followed population is significant because the age reporting for both survivors and age at death for nonsurvivors were obtained in the study protocol and did not rely on age reporting either in census data or on the death certificate. Differences in the age and sex patterns of mortality between two populations living in the same geographic region are relevant to questions about the etiology of the major age-related chronic diseases as well as to topics of current interest in health care policy.

摘要

自1900年以来,在美国生命统计数据中就观察到了约75岁时的黑/白死亡率交叉现象,这是由于年轻时白人死亡率较低,而最年长者中黑人死亡率较低所致。尽管在这类数据中这是一个持续存在的观察结果,但其有效性受到了关于人口普查计数和死亡证明上年龄报告问题的挑战。在基于社区的伊文斯县研究中,使用年龄特异性死亡率的威布尔模型对20年全因死亡率经验进行分析,结果显示男性(73岁时)和女性(85岁时)的黑/白死亡率交叉具有统计学意义。在这个纵向跟踪的人群中发现交叉现象具有重要意义,因为在研究方案中获取了幸存者的年龄报告以及非幸存者的死亡年龄报告,且不依赖于人口普查数据或死亡证明上的年龄报告。生活在同一地理区域的两个人群在死亡率的年龄和性别模式上的差异,与主要年龄相关慢性病的病因问题以及当前医疗保健政策中感兴趣的话题相关。

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