Meng Fange, Wen Xin
School of Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing, China.
National Academy of Innovation Strategy, China Association for Science and Technology, Beijing, China.
PLoS One. 2024 Dec 11;19(12):e0314367. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0314367. eCollection 2024.
With the decrease in fertility rate and the extension of life expectancy, China's ageing degree is deepening, and there is a decrease in the number of labor force individuals, leading to an increase in the burden of old-age care and constraining economic growth. The improvement of human capital can promote economic growth. Research is rquired to determine whether factors such as the teacher-student ratio (quality of education) and the average number of years of schooling (quantity of education) can help alleviate the negative impacts of ageing. The findings demonstrate that education, both in terms of quantity and quality, can successfully reduce the detrimental consequences of ageing. The threshold effect model's findings indicate that both the amount and quality of education can be more effective in reducing the negative impacts of ageing when average years of education surpass 10.87 years and the teacher-student ratio hits 7.80 (780 instructors per 1000 pupils). The results of heterogeneity analysis reveal that both the quantity and quality of education could potentially mitigate the negative effects of ageing in the eastern and western regions, although these factors do not seem to have the same effect in the central region. In the northern and southern regions, it is found that while the quantity of education can help alleviate the negative effects of ageing, the quality of education is effective only in the southern region and not in the northern region. Therefore, one potential strategy to counteract the adverse effects of ageing with a declining number of children is to increase the teacher-student ratio and extend the duration of free education.
随着生育率下降和预期寿命延长，中国老龄化程度不断加深，劳动力人口数量减少，导致养老负担加重，制约经济增长。人力资本的提升能够促进经济增长。需要开展研究以确定师生比（教育质量）和平均受教育年限（教育数量）等因素是否有助于减轻老龄化的负面影响。研究结果表明，教育在数量和质量方面都能够成功减少老龄化的不利影响。门槛效应模型的研究结果表明，当平均受教育年限超过10.87年且师生比达到7.80（每千名学生对应780名教师）时，教育的数量和质量在减少老龄化负面影响方面会更有效。异质性分析结果显示，教育的数量和质量在东部和西部地区都有可能减轻老龄化的负面影响，尽管这些因素在中部地区似乎没有同样的效果。在北部和南部地区，研究发现虽然教育数量有助于减轻老龄化的负面影响，但教育质量仅在南部地区有效，在北部地区则无效。因此，应对儿童数量减少带来的老龄化不利影响的一个潜在策略是提高师生比并延长免费教育时长。
