Establishment and validation of a nomogram model for early diagnosis of gastric cancer: a large-scale cohort study.

PURPOSE

Identifying high-risk populations and diagnosing gastric cancer (GC) early remains challenging. This study aimed to establish and verify a nomogram model for the early diagnosis of GC based on conventional laboratory indicators.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of the clinical data of 2,770 individuals with first diagnosis of GC and 1,513 patients with benign gastric disease from January 2018 to December 2022. The cases were divided into the training set and validation set randomly, with a ratio of 7:3. Variable screening was performed by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and logistic regression analysis. A nomogram was constructed in the training set to assist in the early diagnosis of GC.

RESULTS

There were 4283 patients included in the study, with 2998 patients assigned in the training set and 1285 patients in the validation set. Through LASSO regression and logistic regression analysis, independent variables associated with GC were identified, including CEA, CA199, LYM, HGB, MCH, MCHC, PLT, ALB, TG, HDL, and AFR. The nomogram model was constructed using the above 11 independent indicators. The AUC was 0.803 for the training set and 0.797 for the validation set, indicating that the model showed high clinical diagnostic efficacy. The calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA) of the nomogram presented good calibration and clinical application ability.

CONCLUSION

Based on the analysis of large sample size, we constructed a nomogram model with 11 routine laboratory indicators, which showed good discrimination ability and calibration.