Shi Zhengyang, Shao Jianjiang, Dong Chenxian, Song Guanling, Hu Yunhua, Niu Qiang, Yan Yizhong
Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, No. 59, North 2nd Rd, Hong-Shan District, Shihezi, Xinjiang, 832003, China.
Key Laboratory for Prevention and Control of Emerging Infectious Diseases and Public Health Security, The Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China.
BMC Public Health. 2024 Dec 18;24(1):3407. doi: 10.1186/s12889-024-20622-6.
With the frequent occurrence of extreme weather worldwide, non-optimal temperature increased the risk of death from respiratory diseases. The burden of non-optimal temperature on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) was quantitatively assessed, and its influencing factors were discussed to provide a basis for the prevention and treatment of COPD.
Based on GBD 2019, we characterized the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and years of life lost rate (ASYR) of COPD attributable to non-optimal temperature in three groups of countries at different isotherms (China and USA, South Africa and Australia, Iraq and Portugal) between 1990 and 2019. We constructed the age-period-cohort model to analyze age, period and cohort effects on mortality and the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to predict ASMR in six countries. We analyzed the relationship of socio-demographic index (SDI) with ASMR and ASYR by restricted cubic spline and quantile regression using data from 21 GBD regions.
ASMR of COPD attributable to non-optimal temperature in 2019 was 11.03/100,000 (China), 5.62/100,000 (USA), 2/100,000 (Australia), 0.93/100,000 (Iraq), 3.74/100,000 (Portugal), 4.13/100,000 (South Africa). Low temperature had a greater impact on COPD. The mortality showed an increasing trend with age, the period effect only showed a decreasing trend in China, and cohort effect showed a decreasing trend. The higher COPD burden was concentrated in areas with SDI values of 0.39-0.78. Implied quantile regression of mortality to SDI fit was meaningful at P and P, and ASYR was at P, P, P, and P. We predicted an upward trend in COPD ASMR over the next 25 years only in the USA.
In COPD burden caused by non-optimal temperature, low temperature played a more important role, and it was affected by sex, age, period, cohort and SDI. Over the next 25 years, ASMR in COPD was predicted to decline in all countries except the USA.
随着全球极端天气的频繁发生，非适宜温度增加了呼吸系统疾病的死亡风险。定量评估非适宜温度对慢性阻塞性肺疾病（COPD）的负担，并探讨其影响因素，为COPD的防治提供依据。
基于全球疾病负担研究（GBD）2019数据，我们对1990年至2019年间不同等温线的三组国家（中国和美国、南非和澳大利亚、伊拉克和葡萄牙）中，非适宜温度所致COPD的年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）和寿命损失年率（ASYR）进行了特征描述。我们构建了年龄-时期-队列模型来分析年龄、时期和队列对死亡率的影响，并构建贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型来预测六个国家的ASMR。我们使用来自21个GBD地区的数据，通过受限立方样条和分位数回归分析社会人口指数（SDI）与ASMR和ASYR的关系。
2019年，非适宜温度所致COPD的ASMR分别为：中国11.03/10万、美国5.62/10万、澳大利亚2/10万、伊拉克0.93/10万、葡萄牙3.74/10万、南非4.13/10万。低温对COPD的影响更大。死亡率随年龄呈上升趋势，时期效应仅在中国呈下降趋势，队列效应呈下降趋势。较高的COPD负担集中在SDI值为0.39 - 0.78的地区。死亡率与SDI拟合的隐含分位数回归在P和P时具有意义，ASYR在P、P、P和P时具有意义。我们预测，仅在美国，未来25年COPD的ASMR将呈上升趋势。
在非适宜温度导致的COPD负担中，低温起更重要作用，且受性别、年龄、时期、队列和SDI影响。未来25年，预计除美国外，所有国家COPD的ASMR都将下降。
