Wireko Fredrick Asenso, Ndogum Sebastian, Nasiru Botchew Abdul, Ansah-Asamoah David, Adu Isaac Kwasi, Asamoah Joshua Kiddy K
Department of Mathematics, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana.
Department of Mathematical Science, Kumasi Technical University, Kumasi, Ashanti Region, Ghana.
PLoS One. 2024 Dec 19;19(12):e0311835. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0311835. eCollection 2024.
The intake of alcohol is dangerous, and the smoking of tobacco is savage, but it is life-threatening to practice both smoking and drinking. According to the World Health Organisation, the world loses about 8.5 million people each year as a result of smoking tobacco and drinking alcohol. To study this, we present a mathematical model that investigates the co-dynamics of alcohol drinking and tobacco smoking, as well as some control strategies. In contrast, many studies focus solely on the dynamics of alcohol consumption or tobacco smoking. Also, these studies assume that an individual who may recover from both alcohol drinking and tobacco smoking may relapse. We determined the basic reproductive number by employing the next-generation matrix approach. We conducted local and global stability analyses for the drinking, smoking-free, and endemic states. We then conducted extensive research into secondary infections related to smoking and drinking. We then performed numerical simulations and analysis using the parameter values from the literature. The study further examined the influence of some key parameters on secondary co-dependence infections, which occur when one infected individual enters the population and recovers from both over time. For example, in this study, it was shown that the contact rates a1 and a2 have a direct relationship to the spread of drinking and smoking. In contrast, recovery rates δ1, δ2 showed an inverse relationship. In addition, we conducted an optimal control analysis by suggesting the following: drinking prevention efforts, smoking prevention efforts, recovery efforts on the co-dependence of drinking and smoking, recovery efforts on drinking, and recovery efforts on smoking. The simulations indicated that using these controls can help reduce the number of smokers and drinkers within eight weeks.
饮酒是危险的，吸烟是有害的，但同时吸烟和饮酒则会危及生命。据世界卫生组织称，全世界每年约有850万人因吸烟和饮酒而死亡。为了对此进行研究，我们提出了一个数学模型，该模型研究了饮酒和吸烟的共同动态，以及一些控制策略。相比之下，许多研究仅关注饮酒或吸烟的动态。此外，这些研究假设，一个可能从饮酒和吸烟中恢复的人可能会复发。我们采用下一代矩阵方法确定了基本再生数。我们对戒酒、戒烟和地方病状态进行了局部和全局稳定性分析。然后，我们对与吸烟和饮酒相关的二次感染进行了广泛研究。接着，我们使用文献中的参数值进行了数值模拟和分析。该研究进一步考察了一些关键参数对二次共同依赖感染的影响，二次共同依赖感染是指一个受感染个体进入人群并随着时间推移从两者中恢复时发生的感染。例如，在本研究中，结果表明接触率a1和a2与饮酒和吸烟的传播有直接关系。相比之下，恢复率δ1、δ2呈反比关系。此外，我们通过提出以下几点进行了最优控制分析：饮酒预防措施、吸烟预防措施、对饮酒和吸烟共同依赖的恢复措施、饮酒恢复措施和吸烟恢复措施。模拟结果表明，使用这些控制措施可以在八周内帮助减少吸烟者和饮酒者的数量。
