Meredith Marc, Morse Michael, Madarang Amaya, Steele Katie
Department of Political Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA USA.
University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
Sci Adv. 2024 Dec 20;10(51):eadr2225. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adr2225.
The rise of mail balloting has led to concerns that procedural requirements can lead to "lost votes by mail." We theorize how procedural requirements can affect the incidence and form of lost votes and highlight three measurement issues with equating lost votes and rejected mail ballots. First, coverage: Not all rejected mail ballots are documented. Second, substitution: Some people whose mail ballot is rejected may subsequently successfully vote, in particular if they were notified in time to take action. Third, deterrence: Others may not return their mail ballots if they expect them to be rejected. While rejected mail ballots could over- or underestimate lost votes, a case study of Pennsylvania's 2022 general election reveals at least 47% more lost votes than rejected mail ballots. These lost votes could prove electorally consequential in Pennsylvania given the number of mail ballots cast and the substantial partisan splits on mail versus in-person ballots.
邮寄投票的增加引发了人们对程序要求可能导致“邮寄选票丢失”的担忧。我们从理论上分析了程序要求如何影响选票丢失的发生率和形式，并强调了将选票丢失与被拒收的邮寄选票等同起来时存在的三个衡量问题。第一，覆盖范围：并非所有被拒收的邮寄选票都有记录。第二，替代情况：一些邮寄选票被拒收的人随后可能成功投票，尤其是如果他们及时收到通知并采取行动的话。第三，威慑作用：其他人如果预计自己的邮寄选票会被拒收，可能就不会寄回选票。虽然被拒收的邮寄选票可能高估或低估选票丢失情况，但对宾夕法尼亚州2022年大选的案例研究表明，选票丢失数量比被拒收的邮寄选票至少多47%。鉴于邮寄选票的投出数量以及邮寄选票与亲自投票之间存在的巨大党派分歧，这些丢失的选票在宾夕法尼亚州的选举中可能产生重大影响。
