Kiti Moses C, Sacoor Charfudin, Aguolu Obianuju G, Zelaya Alana, Chen Holin, Kim Sara S, Cavele Nilzio, Jamisse Edgar, Tchavana Corssino, Jose Americo, Macicame Ivalda, Joaquim Orvalho, Ahmed Noureen, Liu Carol Y, Yildirim Inci, Nelson Kristin, Jenness Samuel M, Maldonado Herberth, Kazi Momin, Srinivasan Rajan, Mohan Venkata R, Melegaro Alessia, Malik Fauzia, Bardaji Azucena, Omer Saad B, Lopman Ben
Emerg Infect Dis. 2025 Jan;31(1):94-103. doi: 10.3201/eid3101.240875.
Few sources have reported empirical social contact data from resource-poor settings. To address this shortfall, we recruited 1,363 participants from rural and urban areas of Mozambique during the COVID-19 pandemic, determining age, sex, and relation to the contact for each person. Participants reported a mean of 8.3 (95% CI 8.0-8.6) contacts per person. The mean contact rates were higher in the rural site compared with the urban site (9.8 vs 6.8; p<0.01). Using mathematical models, we noted higher vaccine effects in the rural site when comparing empirical (32%) with synthetic (29%) contact matrices and lower corresponding vaccine effects in the urban site (32% vs 35%). Those effects were prominent in younger (0-9 years) and older (≥60 years) persons. Our work highlights the importance of empirical data, showing differences in contact rates and patterns between rural and urban sites in Mozambique and their nonnegligible effects in modeling potential effects of vaccine interventions.
很少有资料报道资源匮乏地区的实际社交接触数据。为了弥补这一不足,我们在新冠疫情期间从莫桑比克农村和城市地区招募了1363名参与者,确定了每个人的年龄、性别以及与接触对象的关系。参与者报告每人平均有8.3次(95%置信区间8.0 - 8.6)接触。农村地区的平均接触率高于城市地区(9.8对6.8;p<0.01)。通过数学模型,我们发现,在农村地区,将实际接触矩阵(32%)与合成接触矩阵(29%)进行比较时,疫苗效果更高;而在城市地区,相应的疫苗效果较低(32%对35%)。这些效果在年轻人(0 - 9岁)和老年人(≥60岁)中尤为明显。我们的研究强调了实际数据的重要性,显示了莫桑比克农村和城市地区接触率及模式的差异,以及它们在模拟疫苗干预潜在效果时不可忽视的影响。