Orach Henry, Qianling Shen, Arthur Anita Afra, Ankrah Twumasi Martinson, Zhang Shemei
College of Management Science, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu, 600059, China.
School of Management, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, 611130, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2025 Jan;32(3):1247-1271. doi: 10.1007/s11356-024-35769-3. Epub 2024 Dec 24.
Agricultural productivity remains pivotal to the sustenance of the economies and livelihoods of Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. However, the emerging threat of climate change poses a significant challenge to these agricultural-dependent economies. Sub-Saharan African countries are at risk of experiencing the severe effects of climate change on their agricultural productivity. This paper examines the impact of climate change, as proxied by CO2 emissions, on the agricultural production index in Sub-Saharan Africa. The agricultural production index consists of the Crop and Livestock Production Index. Data for the study were extracted from the World Development Indicator, covering the period 1996-2021. The analysis utilized the Panel GMM estimation technique. The study revealed that the effects of climate change vary on crop production and livestock production indices. While climate change has a positive and significant effect on the crop production index, it exhibits a negative and significant impact on the livestock production index. Factors such as technological development, arable land size, and renewable energy use play a significant role in enhancing agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa. Conversely, government effectiveness and labor force exhibit a negative influence on the crop production index. In contrast to the crop production index, climate change has a detrimental effect on livestock productivity. Additionally, technological progress, renewable energy use, and arable land size have a negative impact on livestock productivity. The study recommends that African governments implement policies to promote technological progress, improve institutional quality, and increase renewable energy use in the agricultural sector to achieve sustainable agricultural growth. Policymakers and governments are also encouraged to address the challenges of communal land ownership and unclear property rights.
农业生产力对于撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA）国家的经济和生计维持仍然至关重要。然而，气候变化这一新兴威胁给这些依赖农业的经济体带来了重大挑战。撒哈拉以南非洲国家面临着气候变化对其农业生产力产生严重影响的风险。本文考察了以二氧化碳排放为代表的气候变化对撒哈拉以南非洲农业生产指数的影响。农业生产指数由作物生产指数和畜牧生产指数组成。研究数据取自世界发展指标，涵盖1996 - 2021年期间。分析采用了面板广义矩估计技术。研究表明，气候变化对作物生产指数和畜牧生产指数的影响各不相同。虽然气候变化对作物生产指数有积极且显著的影响，但对畜牧生产指数却呈现出消极且显著的影响。技术发展、耕地面积和可再生能源使用等因素在提高撒哈拉以南非洲农业生产力方面发挥着重要作用。相反，政府效能和劳动力对作物生产指数有负面影响。与作物生产指数不同，气候变化对畜牧生产力有不利影响。此外，技术进步、可再生能源使用和耕地面积对畜牧生产力也有负面影响。该研究建议非洲各国政府实施政策以促进技术进步、改善制度质量并增加农业部门的可再生能源使用，从而实现农业的可持续增长。还鼓励政策制定者和政府应对公共土地所有权和产权不明晰的挑战。
