Wang Yue, Wang Xin, Wang Changfen, Zhou Jianzhong
Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, CHN.
Department of Cardiology, Qian Xi Nan People's Hospital, Zunyi, CHN.
Cureus. 2024 Nov 24;16(11):e74333. doi: 10.7759/cureus.74333. eCollection 2024 Nov.
Background Cardiovascular diseases (CVD), including coronary artery disease, ischemic heart disease, stroke, cardiomyopathy, and atrial fibrillation and flutter, are the leading cause of mortality worldwide, resulting in significant economic and health costs. Recognizing trends and geographical differences in the global burden of CVD facilitates health authorities in particular nations to assess the disease burden and forecast future epidemiological trends. Public health authorities in each country can better understand the differences in disease data and, by learning from the experiences and practices of successful countries and considering the characteristics of their diseases, allocate health resources more rationally and formulate more targeted healthcare strategies to reduce the disease burden. This study aims to comprehensively assess CVD trends and geographic variations from 1990 to 2021. Methods This study focuses on analyzing global trends in the epidemiology of all-age CVD incidence and death over the past 30 years. A vital registration system, cause-of-death inference records, and a cause-of-death ensemble model (CODEm) were used to estimate cause-specific mortality for CVD, with CODEm estimates adjusted using a cause-of-death correction (CoDCorrect) algorithm. Incidence data were extracted from insurance claims and inpatient discharge sources and analyzed with Disease Modeling Meta-Regression, Version 2.1 (DisMod-MR 2.1). Data were extracted from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD 2021) on the number of incident cases and deaths, as well as age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and age-standardized death rates (ASDR) for CVD for each year from 1990 to 2021. We visualized and reported this data at the global, regional, and national levels. To explore the association between the burden of CVD and sociodemographic factors, we used the sociodemographic index (SDI), which categorizes the world's 204 nations into five SDI regions. Because the GBD results are a combination of data and estimates, 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) are provided for each count and rate (per 100,000 populations). Results Globally, the number of CVD incident cases and deaths increased from 34.74 million and 12.33 million in 1990 to 66.81 million and 19.42 million in 2021, representing a 92.3% and 57.5% rise, respectively. However, the global ASIR and ASDR for CVD have decreased by 10.4% and 34.3%, respectively, since 1990. Notably, among the 21 regions of the world, the ASIR for CVD is on a downward trend from 1990 to 2021, except for East and Central Asia, where the ASIR for CVD increased by 3% and 14.3%, respectively. Similarly, the global ASDR for CVD is only on an upward trend in sub-Saharan Africa, increasing by 12%, while all other regions are on a downward trend. Among the five SDI regions, the high SDI region has much lower ASIR and ASDR compared to the world average, and these rates have decreased significantly over the years. Conclusion Despite a significant increase in the number of CVD incident cases and deaths worldwide over the last three decades, ASIR and ASDR have been declining. Over the past 30 years, both ASIR and ASDR for CVD have declined significantly in high SDI areas, while CVD continues to pose a serious public health threat in regions with low SDI.
背景 心血管疾病(CVD),包括冠状动脉疾病、缺血性心脏病、中风、心肌病以及心房颤动和扑动,是全球主要的死亡原因,导致了巨大的经济和健康成本。认识到全球心血管疾病负担的趋势和地理差异有助于特定国家的卫生当局评估疾病负担并预测未来的流行病学趋势。每个国家的公共卫生当局可以更好地了解疾病数据的差异,并通过借鉴成功国家的经验和做法并考虑本国疾病的特点,更合理地分配卫生资源,制定更具针对性的医疗保健策略以减轻疾病负担。本研究旨在全面评估1990年至2021年心血管疾病的趋势和地理差异。
方法 本研究着重分析过去30年全年龄段心血管疾病发病率和死亡率的全球流行病学趋势。使用生命登记系统、死因推断记录和死因综合模型(CODEm)来估计心血管疾病的特定病因死亡率,并使用死因校正(CoDCorrect)算法对CODEm估计值进行调整。发病率数据从保险理赔和住院出院数据源中提取,并使用疾病建模元回归2.1版(DisMod-MR 2.1)进行分析。从《2021年全球疾病负担研究》(GBD 2021)中提取了1990年至2021年每年心血管疾病的发病例数和死亡数、年龄标准化发病率(ASIR)和年龄标准化死亡率(ASDR)。我们在全球、区域和国家层面直观呈现并报告了这些数据。为了探究心血管疾病负担与社会人口学因素之间的关联,我们使用了社会人口学指数(SDI),该指数将世界上204个国家分为五个SDI区域。由于GBD结果是数据和估计值的组合,因此为每个计数和比率(每10万人)提供了95%的不确定性区间(UI)。
结果 在全球范围内,心血管疾病的发病例数和死亡数从1990年的3474万和1233万增加到2021年的6681万和1942万,分别增长了92.3%和57.5%。然而,自1990年以来,全球心血管疾病的ASIR和ASDR分别下降了10.4%和34.3%。值得注意的是,在世界21个区域中,1990年至2021年心血管疾病的ASIR呈下降趋势,但东亚和中亚除外,这两个地区的心血管疾病ASIR分别上升了3%和14.3%。同样,全球心血管疾病的ASDR仅在撒哈拉以南非洲呈上升趋势,上升了12%,而所有其他地区均呈下降趋势。在五个SDI区域中,高SDI区域的ASIR和ASDR远低于世界平均水平,并且这些比率多年来显著下降。
结论 尽管在过去三十年中全球心血管疾病的发病例数和死亡数显著增加,但ASIR和ASDR一直在下降。在过去30年中,高SDI地区心血管疾病的ASIR和ASDR均显著下降,而心血管疾病在低SDI地区仍然构成严重的公共卫生威胁。